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Good evening. The House of Commons authorized the government to renegotiate the agreement on the termination of the UK’s EU membership with Brussels. Prime Minister Theresa May promised not to introduce border control on the Irish–Northern Irish border after Brexit. The President of the European Council has not ruled out the possibility of revising the Brexit agreement if it is justified. The European Union and its institutions are united in sticking to the agreement that has already been adopted to determine the conditions for Brexit, said Michel Barnier, EU Chief Negotiator for Brexit, on Wednesday in Brussels. March 29th is the date for Brexit. By that time, the conditions for exiting should be settled upon. But, will they be settled? We will talk about this with my guests after the clip.

Last December the House of Commons postponed. Then, in January it rejected the proposal that would regulate the termination of Britain’s EU membership. In addition to the opposition parties, the Prime Minister’s own party members and other cabinet parties did not support the Brexit document. The biggest debate was triggered by the question of reintroduction of border control on the Northern Irish border.

The other major topic was whether to extend the date of the exit instead of leaving it at the end of March. On Tuesday, the pact was negotiated by the lower chamber of London and several points were amended. MEPs argued throughout the night. The Prime Minister urged the renegotiation of the agreement with the EU. Theresa May was empowered to do so by a minimal majority. The motion was supported by 317, but 301 voted against it.

It is clear that the amendment to the exit agreement and its related negotiations will not be easy. The government’s goal is to seek legally binding changes, bearing in mind that there is no need to reintroduce border controls at the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, the Prime Minister said. The suggestion of the opposition party that the Brexit deadline be postponed to the end of the year was rejected by the Members of the House. Given that the Honored House rejected the pact supported by the Prime Minister, we are ready to meet with the head of government and propose what kind of agreement the Labor Party wants to have with the European Union, said Jeremy Corbyn.

The President of the European Council stated that the Brexit document cannot be renegotiated. At the same time, Donald Tusk welcomed the fact that the UK would want to avoid an unregulated exit. The politician said that Brussels would be prepared to review the agreement if it were justified. For this, Britain is expected to remain as part of the single market or the customs union. If, however, the UK leaves the community without an agreement, that is, if a hard Brexit would happen, London could cease to enforce the EU principle of free movement in Great Britain within a short period of time. In that case, EU citizens, such as citizens of the Visegrád countries, who arrive in the UK after Brexit to visit, work, or study would only receive a three-month residence permit. If one wants to stay longer than three months, he or she must submit a separate request. It would be valid for another three years, but it would require a fee. In these cases, applicants would need to prove their identities and that they have not committed a serious crime. For a foreigner to be allowed to settle in the UK for over three years, the applicant’s qualification would be crucial. Foreign EU citizens who have been living in Britain for more than five years would not be subject to the new strict immigration policy.

In the studio I welcome Csaba Szajlai, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Figyelő, and Dávid Németh, Chief Analyst of K & H. I wish the gentlemen a good evening.

Good evening.

What seems to be the most likely scenario now? March 29th is very close.

Maybe the latter, that is, the March 29th exit and a hard Brexit. My bet is that the European Union will not go into further bargaining. The British had time, because it has been almost a three-year long process. It would also make the decision-making mechanism of the European Union look not serious if they would set a further interval for Brexit. I am pleased that we are talking about this topic, because it is the biggest issue of the European Union, in several respects. It is a big deal from the perspective of money and the capital market, as the British play a significant role in this, as well as from the perspective of Anglo-Saxon influence, indirectly through America. It is a very important topic for the EU budget, since the British are net contributors. It is important also from the point of view of the labor market, as UK statistics show that about 1.2 million people from the V4 countries work in Britain. So, we are facing a big issue and we can’t tell what will happen, but I think we will face a lot of negative prospects in the next period.

Well, we’ll talk about that too. Do you agree that this scenario is the most likely?

I’m not so pessimistic. Indeed, the Brexit negotiations have not been very successful recently. However, the deadline is getting tighter, and it seems that events are spinning. Both sides are interested in working together in the future. Europe is interested in not having economic growth cut back, and Britain is interested in not collapsing.Of course, there is also an interest in Europe to show that it is not easy to get out of the European Union and that is why we make it hard.

This is an important part of it.

This is an absolutely important part of it, yes. But, I think that when we will be there where there are only a few weeks left until the actual date, that is when the European Union will be a little more compromising than it is now. But, it is true that a significant part of the contract will not be renegotiated because it would make no sense. If the British Parliament only needs a little fine tuning to accept the agreement that Theresa May negotiated, then I think the EU will be willing to do that, even at the price that the actual exit date would be postponed by a few months, say, to early July.

How much will the Visegrád countries be affected with whatever Brexit will be realized?

I think there will be a major transformation in the relationship between the UK and the EU and the Visegrád 4 as well, since nothing will be the same as it used to be. I think that the laws are going to change, and the conditions of working in the UK will most likely be different. It is impossible to know what exceptions the British are going to allow for the V4 countries, but, of course, this cannot be defined as just the V4, but for EU workers. There will certainly be a need for EU workers, as they are needed now.

A big question in the next period is how the British economy will survive, because money is already leaving the country. Most likely many financial centers will transfer their headquarters after Brexit, especially from the inner parts and London, say, to the developed western European cities, such as Frankfurt, Paris, and Milan. I’m certain that this will be part of it. I think that, after the exit, although it is in the common interest of the European Union and Britain to keep up the economic growth, I think we can prepare for a recession. Another question is how the British imagine the future. Apparently, the British top leadership, the British aristocracy, if I may put it that way, the British politicians are basically pro-EU. But, according to recent surveys, if a referendum were to be held again on whether or not the British should quit, British citizens would again vote for Brexit. So, I think the relationship with the EU is still complicated.

How will a large net contributor’s exit affect the economic management of the European Union?

In the European Union budget, the British have been indeed very big contributors, and since our region, the V4, has benefited from that in the recent period by receiving more money from the European Union in the form of subsidies than they had to pay to the common budget, Brexit will negatively affect the region.

The question should be divided into two parts. On the one hand, there will be less money in the EU’s budget, at least according to current knowledge. But in the meantime, the Germans and the French are trying to put together another EU budget, but we don’t know how and who will be net contributors in it. But, under the current system, there will be fewer payments in the EU common budget, which will be allocated to the member states through various structural, cohesion, or agricultural funds. Because of this, they will be sharing less money and we will probably receive less money. But, there is another effect. Britain is a rich country, and with the loss of a rich country, the GDP of the European Union will decrease. So, the level of the gross domestic product begins to decline, making our region relatively rich. And, there are rules that prevent developed regions from accessing certain development resources. As a result, there would be more regions in Hungary that would not be eligible for development funds anymore. So, overall, it is very easy to imagine that a loss of up to 20–25% may occur in the budget cycle after 2021 compared to during the 2014–2020 period.

I would add that there are not too many regions that would be so over-developed in the context of the European Union if it really came true what Adam said. Otherwise, the reasoning is really logical, because if we think about it, London and its surroundings are the richest, most developed EU regions. Returning to what is very important for us Hungarians: how things will be after the Brexit, when the EU’s regional structure changes, and when there will be less payment to the common budget. It is even more important what will happen to the Hungarian exports to Britain. Great Britain is an important trading partner, with 5–6% of our exports…

Sorry for interrupting, but we have a chart and we can show the V4 countries’ export and import proportions with the UK. I’m asking my colleagues to show the chart, and we can see together that the Hungarians, for example, are not at the top of the list compared to the Poles. Poland is a much more important partner for the UK both in terms of exports and imports. Here is the table. So, the Czech Republic takes 5%, Hungary 3.9%, Poland 7%, and Slovakia 6% in the export. For this reason, Brexit will hit Poland the hardest from the region. If we look at import data, there are no big differences: 2–3% each. But, the UK is not among our most important partners. From the point of view of Hungary, the UK is only in 14^th place, so it will probably not affect the Hungarian economy very negatively, hopefully. Is this what the charts translate to?

This chart was created by the OECD. I saw something else. I saw a British statistic that showed 5–6% for Hungary too, but it’s not worth to argue over a few percentages. The point is that we need the British market. So, it is very important for the Hungarian government to have good relations with Britain in the next period. There is an option for this, as Péter Szijjártó has negotiated with the British Minister of Economy and with the British Foreign Minister several times, and there were joint press conferences. So, you have the opportunity to stay in touch. This is important to us, since the percentages in question, whether it is 3.9% or 5–6%, are important. Just to provide some context, this is the volume of our commercial relations with Switzerland or Austria as well. So, the export of Hungarian products to Great Britain is a topic that should be addressed with priority, especially because we are able to export products, for example, red wine, that succeed only on the British market. It is a fact that only few people realize that Great Britain is one of the largest importers of Hungarian red wine. Another important area is productivity. What kind of plants are there in Hungary, and how can we adapt to the British global chains? And, it is not just about the commercial chains, but about the transmission that Britain provides to the Hungarians through the Anglo-Saxon culture. This is similar to the example when we talk about how Germany is the biggest market for Hungarian products, but in fact we indirectly also export to China and to the United States. The value of this is much higher than what can be seen from the statistics at first glance.

Now, a transition period is coming. The new EU financial period will begin in 2020. Does this new scenario include the British-free scenario?

What the British are now negotiating with the EU is just about the conditions under which they leave. That is why there is another period until 2020, when they will agree on how they will probably work together in the future. And, therefore, provided that the Brexit agreement is finally accepted by the British Parliament, until the end of 2020 the British will meet their obligations to pay their contribution to the EU budget. And, until then, the member states may call the full amount originally issued for them, of course, if they meet the requirements for such applications. So, by 2020, it can be said that, if this agreement is in place, that is if the British Parliament accepts it, we will not experience anything different in the EU budget or its functioning. After 2020, a new era will start in every respect. If there will be an agreement on how the European Union will cooperate with Britain in the future, we will also see better what kind of trade relations we will have with the UK in the long term. How much Hungary gets from the EU budget, that we will probably see earlier, maybe even in 2020. Theoretically, new tenders could be launched beginning in 2021. But, now it seems that this will not be realistic, because the European political forces will not be able to reach an agreement. So, it could be postponed even until 2022–2023 when our region and other European countries will actually be able to access EU funds and can start investing with them.

Let’s move onto some political questions. In what cases did the United Kingdom stand behind the V4 and in what cases did it stand against them?

Basically, the United Kingdom has always been a supporter of the V4 countries when political issues have surfaced. Our relationship was basically good and our relationship is still good now, for Poles, Hungarians, Slovaks, and Czechs. I think this is the starting point, and it should be nurtured and strengthened during the next period as well. But, perhaps there is a more important part to the politics of the next period. After all, with the withdrawal of the British, a so-called separate policy leaves behind the decision-making of the European Union, which means that the hegemony of the German–French axis will be clearly dominant.

Is that what we have to prepare for?

Yes, most probably.

Because what characterized decision-making up to 2019 was a bit more diverse. The influence on the decisions of the Italians, Spaniards, and other Member States was more significant. Now, the German–French axis seems to be developing. The British have always had a great influence on the decision-making of the European Union, given that we are talking about a country of 60–70 million, and British MEPs also had a significant voting power in the European Parliament. This kind of special policy is now lost. We Hungarians must be interested in working with the V4 countries. We are not enough just by ourselves neither in the European Union nor in the European Parliament. However, if we work together with the V4 countries, Poles, Czechs, and Slovaks, and I would add our Croatian brothers as well, I think that we have a greater chance of being able to stand up for issues together. In this respect also, the withdrawal of the British is regrettable. As I said earlier, the Hungarian–British, Czech–British, Slovak–British, or Polish–British connections worked very well. In fact, if we speak in terms of our professions, economics, then, for example, the British influence, or more specifically the British Anglo-Saxon intellectual influence on the Polish economy, is very strong, much stronger than in other Central European countries. In Poland, the kind of money and capital market culture that is typical of the British has evolved or is evolving. I am thinking here first of all about the operation of the stock market.

We have about two minutes left. I think we still have time for one of the most important questions. What happens to the employees? There are different estimates, but the number of V4 citizens working in the UK is between 1 and 1.5 million. What will happen to them?

According to current information, those who are already employees can remain in the country. The big question will be what kind of agreement will the European Union have with the UK in the long term and to what extent will a free labor flow be allowed between Britain and the countries of the European Union. We have seen different agreements, for example, with Switzerland or Norway, where movement within the EU is more tolerant, but there are also different conditions for staying there. So, there can be many scenarios here which could lead to temporary employee permission, no employee permission, or even a strict definition of the professionals that will be allowed people to enter the country. The British are clearly of the opinion that they want to choose who is valuable to them and what the economy needs, and on that basis they want to decide how many people can settle and work in the country. However, if they want to remain to a large extent in the European single market, then the European Union is expecting the UK to be more liberal about allowing EU citizens to work in the UK and to pay more into the EU budget. So, there are still a lot of conflicts of interest here, and they will be settled as the result of the 1.5-year negotiation series, if they can agree on what the exit conditions will be for the UK.

We, together with many, are curiously looking forward to seeing the developments. Thank you for being here and sharing your valuable thoughts with us.

Thank you.

Dear viewers, you have been watching the V4 Future of Europe program. Next week we will back with fresh information. Thank you for your attention and goodbye.

 

Good evening. Welcome. You are watching the TV show of the Visegrád 4. The Hungarian presidency of the V4 concluded this summer. The one-year period brought many results that have laid the foundation for a closer and more active cooperation, for which the past week was a good example. Former Ministerial Commissioner for the Hungarian Presidency of the Visegrád Group Krisztina Varjú will evaluate the presidency with us in the studio tonight. I wish you a good evening. Thank you for accepting our invitation. How big of a force field does the V4 cooperation represent today and to what extent must Brussels take into account this power?

We have a very successful presidency behind us. To address how intense of a cooperation the V4 represents, we should add the wider context. The cooperation has existed since 1991, and it was created with the idea of assisting the then three states to join the European Union and NATO. After this was accomplished, the intensity of the cooperation diminished a little. The cooperation has seen more and less dynamic periods, but in recent years it has been demonstrated that within the framework of the European Union it is important for our countries to represent their common values and interests.

That is correct. But 2018, or we can go back to 2015, gave a new goal and a new job to the formation. Regarding the intensity of the cooperation, the question arises of how strong this cooperation can be after two and a half decades of varying levels of intensity. The other part of the matter is that the Western European elite clearly makes every effort to divide this cooperation. On the one hand, there is a Hungary­–Poland axis, and, on the other hand, there is Slovakia and the Czech Republic. How can the power of the four states work in unity?

I believe that the newly acceded EU member states, namely the V4 countries and other Central European member states, ten years after accession have recognized that there are common strategic interests in which they should jointly represent their positions in the European Union. Obviously, this is not in the interest of all member states. Aspirations to divide the formation of the V4 community can be identified in various decision-making mechanisms. The V4 countries have a great advantage of having found a way to stand together in representing their goals.

The most significant example within the V4 countries of representing other communities’ interests is Slovakia. Slovakia has a commitment towards the Visegrád 4 cooperation, but it is at the same time a member of the eurozone, and, therefore, it is not a secret that Slovakia aims to belong to the Core Europe as well. How strongly can Slovakia advocate its interest in this regard? The question is also important because Slovakia is currently serving as the president of the V4.

One of the very basic driving forces of the Visegrád cooperation is that we do not have to agree on everything. It is our strength that we work together on themes that are in our common interest. Because Slovakia is a member of the eurozone, there are political decisions in which the country has to consider other aspects, but the leaders of the V4 countries respect and understand that.

I started this conversation with you asking about the balance of our Visegrád presidency. What priorities were formulated ahead of the Hungarian presidency, what were the objectives, and what was achieved?

I think that the Hungarian presidency, which ended this summer, was probably the most dynamic V4 presidency ever.

People saw this from abroad as well.

The most significant result is perhaps that it has provided a new dynamic for the Visegrád cooperation. We have been trying to raise awareness of what the Visegrád community is, what it means to be Central European, what it means when the prime ministers of the four countries jointly enter a meeting room in Brussels, and what kind of common values we represent here in the heart of Europe. This is an aspect that had been less emphasized during previous presidencies. We organized many programs that aimed at bringing the Visegrád concept closer to the people. We were able to reach hundreds of thousands of people with events focusing on sports, gastronomy, and culture. Concert series and literary evenings have been held, but also in the field of science, a major international conference was held in May. This is a new aspect of the cooperation that was less important before. Of course the Hungarian presidency also did its part in terms of the political content of the cooperation. We focused on topics that are the contemporary challenges of our century, where it is really important for the four Central European countries, or other like-minded countries, that they can act together.

Let me briefly mention some facts. One of the aspects of our V4 presidency was related to the European Union. We explicitly sought to present as many joint proposals as possible in the EU decision making processes to show the Central European interest and to try to counterbalance those Western European aspirations that are disadvantageous to us. I believe that we managed to work well together in this regard. As an example, we can mention the coordination that we started concerning a common position for the next seven-year budget cycle. The Slovak presidency is continuing this political priority. A summit on this subject was held in Bratislava last week. But, we could also mention the migration crisis in which the V4 formed a united front back in 2015, focusing on how to stop illegal migration, contrary to the incentives of Brussels that encourage illegal migration. Today, the V4 position has become virtually part of the European mainstream.

I am glad that you mentioned Brussels’ plan for the future reduction of cohesion resources. To make it clear to the viewers what happened in Bratislava, 15 countries including Hungary participated in the meeting entitled “Friends of Cohesion” with the aim of discussing the EU framework budget of 2021–2027. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was interviewed at the meeting.

“We are organizing ourselves. There are countries in the European Union, more than a dozen, whose interests are aligned regarding the next year’s most important issue. The most important issue in the coming year will be, after the EP elections, the creation of the seven-year budget. The interests are diverse, but we, approximately a dozen of us, share our interests. We call ourselves the Friends of Cohesion, and we will now coordinate our positions that we want to represent together against the groups with opposite interests. These will be complicated negotiations, but in the end we will agree.

Is the V4 capable of showing enough power to achieve this agreement?

Negotiating the budget cycle is always a very complex and lengthy process. There are common points that Central European countries can jointly stand up for. Serious conflicts of interest will certainly take place before the final decision is made. The Hungarian V4 presidency efficiently coordinated the budget negotiations for the year, so I hope that our Slovak counterparts will follow suit. For us, the most important thing is that the resources available from the cohesion funds and the common agricultural policy are not reduced.

So, there is continuity between the priorities of the presidencies?

Absolutely. The presidencies carry more or less similar priority areas, and it is true in our case as well. We coordinated the presidency’s transfer with the Slovak partners so that we could roughly determine what strategic directions were important to us, and I think they are taking some of them on. For example, I can mention our second priority area, which is developing regional connections. Negotiations are being held under the Slovak presidency on the topic of the fast train linking the V4 countries. The Hungarian presidency initiated this project. Our presidency closed with the declaration of prime ministers in which they confirmed that this project is necessary. The region is facing a spectacular lag in terms of infrastructure development, so this is a topic that interests all four countries. Negotiations were held under the Slovak presidency at the ministerial level on infrastructure developments. Péter Szijjártó, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, took part on behalf of Hungary. I think that next year they will be able to begin the work that will predict how this long-term project can be realized.

And what is the Digital V4 about? What does this name entail?

In the Hungarian presidency, we chose a nickname for our priority areas to help create an easier understanding. As I mentioned, our first area of focus was the coordination in EU affairs, so this area was called “European Visegrád.” Secondly, our efforts to strengthen regional development and cohesion were called “Regional Visegrád.” And, the third area was called “Digital Visegrád.” Here, our primary goal was to increase the competitiveness of the region and to encourage our businesses and young talents to stay in the region. Our ambition was to help our entrepreneurs and talented, creative young professionals to get their first international experience here in the region, thereby increasing the value generated in our region and the regions’ economic strength. We targeted start-ups, that is, young creative entrepreneurs with innovative ideas, in all four countries with many programs. We launched projects and competitions for them.

Are the Visegrád Funds related to this topic or are they completely different?

They are related. I can mention an example that combines the Slovak presidency, the Visegrád Fund, and the aftercare of the Hungarian presidency. As the initiative of the Hungarian presidency, we launched a strategic cooperation with the V4 and Israel. The completion of the project happened in the last couple of days. In this framework, young start-ups from the V4 countries could participate in a three-week study program in Israel. I think that this is a significant achievement of both digital competitiveness and the V4+ cooperation. The Visegrád Funds are also connected since the project was funded from the Visegrád Fund’s framework.

The grants of the Visegrád Fund are available for all member states.

For this particular project, a so-called dedicated funding source was allocated from the framework of the Visegrád Fund. Originally, the Fund was created to complement the political cooperation by providing an opportunity for the nationals of the V4 countries to strengthen their connections with fellowships and talent programs.

Krisztina Varjú, thank you for coming in.

Thank you for the invitation.

After his visit to Bratislava last weekend, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also visited Prague and met with his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babis. We are now connecting to our Prague-based correspondent, Péter Balla. Hello, Péter! How was the Hungarian Prime Minister’s visit received in the Czech Republic?

Hello! I have to say that, I, who was born and raised in Prague, have never seen such good relations between Hungary and the Czech Republic. Viktor Orbán had a very busy schedule. He met the prime minister, the president of the two chambers, the head of state, and he even visited the cardinal. As it is known that the Cardinal of the Czech Catholic Church has a very good opinion of Hungary. They founded a Hungarian parish in Prague a year ago. The Czech media constantly reported on the visit of Viktor Orbán, and I again have to say that I have never experienced such a great reception of a visit of a Hungarian prime minister.

Czech Foreign Minister Tomas Petricek had earlier removed the Czech diplomatic representation in Budapest from the list of priority embassies. Did this fact shadow the meetings?

I think that this case has more of a domestic policy relevance. It should be mentioned that Petricek was in Poland when the decision was made. In the meantime, the Polish foreign minister was also abroad. I think this is the play of the President Zeman. The former foreign minister said that this decision is relevant in the ministry’s internal operation because it determines the degree of diplomatic presence in some countries. It is obvious that countries such as Afghanistan are more problematic, and it is logical that they put Hungary in a lower category. I think this does not mean that Hungary would be less important to the Czech Republic.

So, this is actually the cause of the conflict, I mean the conflict between Petricek and Babis. Péter, please let me ask you briefly about one more topic.  According to the news, the giant Volkswagen factory in the Czech Republic might be moving to Hungary. What is the reason for that, and where is the factory moving?

This is a hot topic in the Czech Republic. The factory in Kvasiny has grown too large. There is a huge labor shortage in the region; they cannot even get workers from abroad. But, it is not about the factory leaving. They are just reorganizing the production. Volkswagen products will be manufactured there, but Skoda will be produced somewhere else. Bulgaria, Turkey, and Hungary could all come into the picture as possible new locations.

Péter Balla, from Prague, thank you very much for the information. We are continuing with another case that points out how important the cooperation of the V4 is: the EU is launching a probe against Austria about family benefits.

The EU will launch a probe on the Austrian family allowance following the joint action of the V4, said Katalin Novák, State Secretary of Family and Youth Affairs. The four Visegrád countries have opposed the Austrian decision, which, beginning in January, lowers family allowances to children of non-Austrian EU workers, among them, Hungarian workers. V4 countries, alongside with Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Slovenia think that the Austrian decision seriously violates EU law, the principle of equal treatment, and the principle of social security coordination, and unjustifiably discriminates foreign workers as they pay the same taxes and contributions as Austrian nationals. Katalin Novák emphasized that the indexation of Austrian family benefits to the greatest extent affect Hungarian families, including almost 40,000 children. Marianne Thyssen, EC Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs, Skills, and Mobility, pointed out to Katalin Novák that the EC believes that all EU citizens are entitled to equal rights on the basis of the principle of free movement and should not be discriminated in terms of family allowances.

With the news of the Visegrád 4, we are expecting you in a week’s time. On behalf of my colleagues, thank you for being with us, and goodbye.