Poland’s government is in turmoil following the loss of the presidency to the conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, but the growing border crisis with Germany may be the final straw.
According to sociologist Marcin Palade, the situation on the border with Germany is a significant and escalating problem that could potentially lead to the collapse of the current ruling coalition. Palade’s comments come amid concerns over German authorities allegedly bringing illegal migrants into Poland, which has prompted the formation of a citizen patrol at the Lubieszyn-Linken border crossing.
He concluded by stating that the migration issue could be the factor that “could overthrow the current government coalition and even cause early parliamentary elections.”
Speaking on Polsat News, Palade connected the border issue to a recent poll that showed the Civic Coalition losing over seven percentage points, a result that, if reflected in an election, would see them lose power. He explained that polls are a reflection of current politics, and beyond the dispute over the legality of the presidential elections, the situation on the Polish-German border is another equally important factor.
“There is also a second factor, equally important, which will somehow — after the inauguration of President Karol Nawrocki — replace the one related to the elections. This is a question of security, of what is happening on the Polish-German border,” he noted.
Videos at the border between Poland and Germany are trending across social media and show how fast tensions have grown. A major incident, such as police officer attacking a Pole at the border, could lead to a serious crisis for the government, which has been accused of looking the other way as Germany dumps migrants on Polish territory.
Palade believes that the border situation is just the beginning of a process that will continue until the new EU pact on migration fully takes effect. The pact is expected to dramatically boost the number of migrants being sent to Poland from other member states, and the EU is already preparing the groundwork with migration integration centers throughout the country.
“This is the beginning of a certain process that awaits us until the migration pact enters into full force. This is next year,” said Palade.
He noted that the current events are beneficial for political groups that have consistently opposed the European Union’s migration policy, as there is growing evidence of a lack of control over what is happening. As a result, right-wing groups, both in Poland and elsewhere, are gaining strength while more liberal parties are weakening.
The sociologist predicted that the primary beneficiary of this crisis would not be the Law and Justice Party, which he believes lacks credibility on the issue after its previous term in power.
“At the moment, what we are seeing is certainly very beneficial for those political groups that have opposed the current migration policy of the European Union from the very beginning, with more and more evidence of a de facto lack of control over what is happening. It is therefore no wonder that right-wing groups are growing stronger, and not only in Poland, while those with a more liberal approach are weakening,” he stated.
Palade warned that the longer the government delays introducing controls on the German border, the worse it will be for the ruling coalition’s approval ratings. He argued that as more migrants are transferred, residents in other regions of Poland will begin to feel the impact, which will affect public perceptions of security.
