Ukraine’s counteroffensive is not going according to plan, and it has thus switched to attempting to wear the Russians down mostly in terms of material costs, as Russia is paying nearly $1 billion a day to wage this war, says Hungarian security policy expert Péter Tarjányi while speaking to news portal Index.
“It has by now become obvious that the spring-summer counteroffensive is not proceeding as planned by the Western allies and Ukraine, and the Russian defense has proved that it is on solid footing,” said Tarjányi while analyzing the current situation on the front line.
The security policy expert said that the Ukrainian side has also recognized the situation and has not yet used a good part of its available weapons systems; it is thus trying to tire out the Russians, with the expert citing the high cost of the war for Moscow.
“While last year, the war cost Russia approximately $650 million (per day) to finance, today this amount has reached $1 billion per day; however, the Ukrainian side also has similar costs on a daily basis,” said Tarjányi.
However, many experts previously said Russia would run out of money merely months after the conflict began. Instead, Russia’s GDP growth is stronger than Germany’s and the country continues to see strong revenues on its natural resources. In terms of military attrition, Russia has a far larger population size, enjoys an artillery advantage, and is defending well-fortified positions.
Tarjányi did note that while Russia is financing the war itself, the costs in Ukraine are largely covered by Western allies or loans. Given the blank checks the West is willing to write for Ukraine, the country may outlast Russia on the spending front, even if the West is struggling to meet Ukraine’s weapons demands.
“For the past 30 years, the Western world has believed that there would be no war like the current one, and that was a big mistake. It is because of this mistake that even the largest military alliance, NATO, cannot provide Ukraine with enough ammunition, missiles or combat equipment to defend itself,” Trajányi pointed out.
According to Tarjányi, the NATO summit could not decide whether Ukraine should join the alliance, but President Volodymyr Zelensky is likely to have received further promises of Western weapons systems from member states.
The Hungarian security expert said he believes that Turkey is one of the big winners so far in the war.
“In a way, Turkey is the winner of this war situation,” said Tarjányi.
He added that Turkey is making gestures toward both sides, and from a diplomatic point of view, they are benefiting from this strategy.