The European Union’s Fit for 55 directive package foresees an increase of the goal for reducing the emission of greenhouse gasses across EU territory from 40 to 55 percent by 2030. The costs of this ambitious directive will be gigantic for Poland.
“Compared to current EU regulations, the fulfillment of the new EU climate package will cost Poland around €190 billion more,” warn Pekao SA bank analysts in a report for the Dziennik Gazeta Prawna (DGP) paper.
Polish taxpayers will have to pay E€338 billion just to achieve the currently enacted EU Fit for 40 regulations (emission reduction of 40 percent by 2030). The majority of this cost comes from energy sector investments (€86 billion) and the raising of energy effectiveness in households (almost €100 billion).
A third factor is the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) which costs over €33 billion.
Pekao analysts calculated that the introduction of an even more exorbitant version of the climate package will raise the total cost up to €527.5 billion. The differences in the prices of the two packages amount to close to €190 billion and are caused mainly by increases in the cost of the ETS.
Nevertheless, experts also pointed out that the new package is meant to generate more income for Poland. It is estimated that this income would reach €220 billion. The source of that income would first and foremost come from funds from the ETS. In addition to this, there would also be income from the EU Recovery Fund and the multi-annual financial framework.
The EU has so far blocked EU Recovery Fund disbursements over political differences. Even if Poland gains access to such funding, there still remains an almost €300 billion hole.
“This sum should not be treated as a balance of costs and benefits of Fit for 55 for Poland. It does not consider the difficult-to-estimate benefits from investments associated with the package,” said Pekao’s lead economist Ernest Pytlarczyk.
According to DGP sources, the calculations of Pekao experts were discussed at an informal government session in December 2021. The report was to have sparked intense debate.
“The EU’s climate policy is one of the main points of conflict within the United Right, and especially between Solidarity Poland and the factions focused around Mateusz Morawiecki,” DGP informed.