Polish inflation fell to 6.5 percent in October, down from 8.2 percent in September and slightly lower than experts predicted, according to Statistics Poland (GUS).
Preliminary data released by the stats agency indicated an inflation rate of 6.5 percent year-over-year. Analysts had forecasted a rate of 6.6 percent.
Food and alcoholic beverages are 7.9 percent more expensive than they were for the same month last year, while energy prices have risen by 8.3 percent. However, a noticeable decline of 14.4 percent was seen in gasoline prices.
Experts from PKO Bank emphasized that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains on a rapid decline.
Fuel prices in October were 4.2 percent lower month-over-month than in September, despite price increases observed since the middle of the month. Analysts highlighted that the year-over-year inflation decline was also attributed to a high base effect, with food and fuel prices soaring this time last year.
Bartosz Sawicki from Cinkciarz.pl noted that this level of inflation hasn’t been seen since 2021 and that a cut of interest rates is possible: “Another month of easing price increases will likely lead to a 25 basis point rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council to 5.5 percent on Nov. 8,” he said.
Many experts believe that inflation will not continue to decrease as rapidly. “This is likely the last significant downward movement for the year,” read an analysis from Santander Bank regarding Tuesday’s data release.
Analysts from Bank Millennium share a similar view. “There is limited room for further inflation decline in the coming months. Especially since retail fuel prices will need to adjust to international market trends, pushing the CPI higher in the final months of this year,” they said.
“By the end of the year, inflation should be close to 7 percent year-over-year.”