Statistics Poland (GUS) released a preliminary inflation estimate for August, referred to as a so-called “flash estimate,” which came out to be 10.1 percent. Details on how exactly the prices of individual food items, other products (fuel, energy, clothing, etc.), or services have changed will be provided on Sept. 18.
The 10.1 percent reading is the lowest since February 2022, when the annual inflation rate was 8.5 percent. Inflation in Poland has been falling for six consecutive months, after peaking in February of this year at 18.4 percent year-over-year.
On Sept. 5-6, the next meeting of the Polish Monetary Policy Council will take place.
Some economists expect that there may be the first interest rate cut then. Even if it is small, it is highly anticipated by borrowers. The September calendar favors a rate cut: Although the Council is independent of politicians, lowering the rate, which will result in lower loan installments, may give the ruling party extra points in the elections.
During the last press conference, the president of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński, stated that a rate cut is possible in September if inflation falls to a single-digit figure and forecasts indicate further declines. However, some members of the council believe it is too early for such a decision.
Since April 2021, the consumer goods and services price index has been above the upper deviation limit from the inflation target set by the Monetary Policy Council at 2.5 percent.