In an interview with the British magazine The Spectator, Dalibor Rohac, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, was asked about the potential consequences of Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections.
Rohac emphasized that a Republican win would fundamentally alter the United States’ international relations with European countries. According to Rohac, Trump’s approach towards Russia would not be assertive, and he would lack interest in strengthening NATO. The former U.S. president has described the Alliance “as obsolete” and has contemplated leaving it, Rohac noted. This, he believes, would send a clear signal to Poland, which “would become the next target of the Russian Federation.”
Rohac added that the authorities in Warsaw would need to significantly enhance their security, as they could no longer rely on U.S. support. He argues that the best solution would be a formal agreement with France and the United Kingdom regarding the sharing of nuclear weapons.
“In a post-American world, a Polish nuclear umbrella could help secure the eastern flank of Europe. It would also provide an alternative way of ensuring security for Ukraine after the end of hostilities, especially if NATO membership is no longer an option,” Rohac stressed.
“A nuclear-armed Poland would be an answer to the perennial problem of European geopolitics, namely preventing Germany and Russia’s attempts to dominate the Eurasian continent,” he added.
The topic of deploying nuclear weapons in Poland emerged in October 2022 when Jakub Kumoch, the head of the Presidential International Policy Bureau, announced Poland’s willingness to participate in the nuclear sharing arrangement, which involves sharing nuclear weapons among European countries.
“We believe that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has nullified the NATO-Russia pact of 1997. Poland is interested in participating in the nuclear sharing program,” Kumoch said. In response to Poland’s declaration, Vedant Patel, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, stated that “the United States is not currently negotiating with Poland regarding the potential deployment of nuclear weapons.” He also emphasized that such actions are not considered for any country that joined NATO after 1997.
Currently, five NATO countries participate in the program to share American nuclear weapons: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. The former Polish conservative government had requested that their nation be added to this list of countries.
It is estimated that between 150 to 200 nuclear warheads are ready for potential use in the existing five nations.
