Experts at the American CBRE, a commercial real estate services and investment company, have signaled a serious problem for Polish economic growth, with the company basing its claims on forecasts from Oxford Economics.
The group states that the number of Poles of working age is expected to fall by 8.4 percent by 2040 and that the two worst affected sectors will be office real estate and the housing market.
The factors behind these estimates are Poland’s aging population and low birth rate. In terms of population shifts, the experts predict that the region around Warsaw will increase its population, whereas regions such as Łódz and its surrounding areas, along with the Świętokrzyskie province, will accelerate their demographic decline.
The result of all this is that fewer people of working age will be supporting greater numbers of the elderly, which will create huge pressures on the healthcare and pension systems, a drop in tax revenue, and growing problems with public finances.
It also means employers will offer more flexible forms of working, such as remote work, leading to a fall in demand for office space.
The company additionally claims it will lead employers to increasingly look beyond Poland to find potential workers. All of these trends will in turn lead to a decline in housing demand within the cities and increased demand for suburban and even rural properties.
CBRE is based in Dallas, Texas, and specializes in servicing commercial real estate investments. It employs 100,000 staff and has 530 branches all over the world.
