Support for Poland’s ruling conservative party is falling, polling shows

According to commentators, decline in support for Law and Justice (PiS) could be linked to the recent environmental disaster in the Oder River

editor: Grzegorz Adamczyk
author: Rzeczpospolita

The ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) in Poland remains the most popular option among voters, but its lead over Civic Platform (PO) has declined to 5 percentage points, the newest poll by the Institute of Economic and Social Studies (IBRiS) shows.

Rzeczpospolita daily indicates that Law and Justice has faced many problems in recent months, including a deficit on the coal market, the rise in inflation, conflict with the EU, the fuss around the National Recovery Plan funds, and friction inside the United Right.

In the middle of June, the ruling party had the support of 34.5 percent of voters and by the end of July, it was at an almost identical level of 34.9 percent.

However, the turn of July and August brought an ecological catastrophe in the Oder River, during which the authorities did not know how to handle the situation and reacted too late, causing a decrease in their approval ratings which now stand at 30.9 percent.

The opposing Civic Coalition does not have reason to be satisfied either, as their approval rating has not changed: it was 25.4 percent in June, 27.7 percent in July, and 25.8 percent at the end of August. At the same time, the distance between Law and Justice and Civic Platform decreased and is now only 5 percent.

Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 and the Left have reason for optimism. 12.5 percent of respondents want to vote for Szymon Hołownia’s party; in IBRiS’ survey from June, it was 9.6 percent. The Left can now expect 10.5 percent of the votes; it was 8.4 percent before the summer.

At 5.2 percent of the votes, the Polish People’s Party-Polish Coalition (PSL) is on the verge of the electoral threshold. Confederation does not enter the Sejm with 3 percent, and with 13 percent of respondents currently unsure who to vote for, Rzeczpospolita assesses that the final electoral fight will be for the votes of the undecided.

If the elections took place now, 48.3 percent of eligible voters would turn out to vote. According to commentators, that low turnout could be of benefit for Law and Justice.

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