Data from Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) show that by 2060, Poland’s population will fall by 6.7 million to 30.9 million, and half of the country’s inhabitants will be over 50 years old. The UN has also predicted that Poland’s population will decrease to about 19 million by 2100, writes Business Insider.
Poland has been suffering from a low birth rate for almost 30 years, according to GUS. Since 1990, the fertility rate has been below two, which does not guarantee simple generational replacement. The number of deaths has also exceeded the number of births since 2013, as the post-war baby boom generation is disappearing.
Director of the Institute of Statistics and Demography at the Warsaw School of Economics, Prof. Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, told the Polish Press Agency (PAP), that mitigating this trend is very difficult.
“Forecasts show that if we maintain the current system of transfers and public services, in the long term our salaries will not be enough to pay for all of this. This must definitely change so as not to limit the country’s possibilities for social and economic development. After all, we want life in Poland to be better and better,” she said.
Exclusive: Can Poland’s low birthrate be fixed? Polish secretary of state discusses with Remix News the challenges and potential solutions to the country’s demographic crisis. https://t.co/0QYubFMc2k
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) May 2, 2023In recent months, the Council of Ministers’ report on the implementation of the “Family 500+” program over the course of seven years (2016-2023) has stirred up discussion. The government’s analysis shows that the program had a limited impact on fertility, with its continued operation being questioned
According to Prof. Chłoń-Domińczak, it is worth investing further in supporting families. “I would like to point out, however, that the main role of family benefits is not to encourage people to have or give birth to children. It is more about supporting families, especially those with a lower socio-economic status. It is an investment in children, supporting their development, reducing the risk of poverty, because these are problems that a large part of families in Poland still struggle with,” she said.
She noted that “Family 500+” program has very clearly reduced poverty among families, especially those with many children. – This is a high value that should be maintained. The question, however, is whether solutions should not be introduced that will limit access to the benefit for the wealthiest families, indicated the professor.
Dominik Owczarek, the Institute of Public Affairs, says the family benefits system needs to be reformed. Currently, family benefits range from PLN 95 to PLN 135, some €22 to €31, a month, which he says should be increased significantly as soon as possible.
According to Owczarek, another problem is the stigmatization of families with children. “Perhaps, contrary to our imagination, we are not a society that is friendly to children. We do not really accept these children either. More and more often, restaurants, hotels and other service points are appearing that offer so-called child-free hours. There are also negative reactions to children in public transport. As if they were not full-fledged members of our society,” he said.
To create “a good atmosphere around families,” Owczarek says the ministry in charge of families “should create a social campaign to promote parenthood as well as an understanding view of children’s parents.” The state must also improve the quality of public services for people who decide to have a child, he added.
Turning to the plight of mothers, Owczarek pointed out that women often feel lonely and isolated after giving birth, emphasizing the need for initiatives like creating clubs for parents of small children, which some local governments are already doing.
Only two major cities in Poland will avoid the demographic decline facing Poland. https://t.co/FnZRk9PlE6
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) March 28, 2024Poland’s demographic crisis has also hit its workforce. Tomasz Lasocki, from the Faculty of Law and Administration of the University of Warsaw, pointed out that the answer to this challenge may be migration, technological changes and increased work efficiency.
“In terms of education and continuing education, we are in the second half of Europe. We have as many children as we have, we will not have more, so let’s at least try to teach them as best as we can how to move efficiently in this world,” said Lasocki. He explained that this includes making knowledge of foreign languages a standard, but also skillful use of artificial intelligence and automation, which can improve work efficiency.
Lasocki also thinks the retirement age of women and men must be equalized. “If it were up to me, the retirement age would be at least equalized to 65 years,” he said.
Prof. Chłoń-Domińczak agrees. “Today’s low retirement age for women discriminates against women. Their benefits are lower than those of men by over PLN 1,000 precisely because they retire earlier and work less,” she noted.
She pointed out that in fact, in all European Union countries, the retirement age for women and men is equal. “Romania recently equalized the retirement age, so we are really behind Europe and here a change is clearly needed,“ said Prof. Chłoń-Domińczak.
