The conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party is on top with almost 30 percent over the vote, according to the latest United Surveys poll for portal Wirtualna Polska, while Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) has the support of just over 28 percent of those surveyed. Most polls show these two parties as being neck and neck, so this is no surprise.
The shock in this poll is the fact that the right-wing Confederation party has taken third place with 8.5 percent of the vote, and Tusk’s coalition partner, the Third Way alliance comprising Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 and PSL, is fourth with just under 8 percent of the vote, only beating the Left party by 0.1 percent. The Third Way noted a decline of as much as 5.6 percentage points compared to a survey from a week ago.
Seven percent of the sample wanted to vote for non-party or other party slates, and 11 percent were undecided as to who they would support. The projected turnout was just over 53 percent, down from the record high of nearly 75 percent of the parliamentary elections, but in line with turnout for local elections in the past.
The poll comes in the wake of Donald Tusk calling on voters “to vote according to their hearts rather” than for tactical reasons. The very high level of support gained by Third Way in the parliamentary elections (14.4 percent) is felt by many to have been because some Tusk supporters switched to Third Way to ensure it crossed the 8-percent electoral threshold.
The Third Way has also attracted criticism for its stance on abortion, with the party resisting Tusk and the Left’s call for abortion on-demand until the 12th week of pregnancy, while from the right, the Third Way has been criticized for failing to persuade the rest of the ruling coalition to introduce tax cuts.
Poland votes in local government elections on Sunday, April 7. Voters will elect city and municipal mayors as well as councils at the municipal, county and regional levels. It is the elections to the regional councils which will be the best indicator as to the popularity of all the political parties. At municipal and county levels, voters often choose local independents over representatives of political parties.
The conservatives (PiS) are currently in control of seven regional councils, and the current ruling coalition controls nine.
