French President Emmanuel Macron recently said that the red lines drawn by the European Union to keep EU countries out of the war were a sign of weakness. Commentators and analysts are still quite skeptical about Macron entering the war in a decisive manner with French troops, but there are at least 5 reasons to believe that the French president may be willing to take the gamble of a lifetime.
A Russian breakthrough is a real possibility
A Russian breakthrough may indeed happen in the coming months, as Western intelligence services, politicians, and media outlets have been prepping the Western public for this possibility for some time. In such a scenario, if Russia were to take wide swathes of territory, attention would shift back to Macron and his repeated warnings that France would enter the war in favor of Ukraine in such as scenario. In turn, this would increase the pressure on him to react.
The question ultimately is whether Macron is deploying rhetoric for internal political purposes or seriously considering sending French troops to Ukraine in the case of a Russian breakthrough. Those doubtful of Macron’s willingness to send troops to Ukraine have plenty of ammunition. For example, immediately after he claimed that the French could enter the war on the side of Ukraine, France also announced it would send a French envoy to attend Vladimir Putin’s inauguration ceremony in Moscow while most other EU countries are actively boycotting it.
“We are not at war with Russia or the Russian people, and we have no desire for regime change in Moscow,” said Macron while speaking with Chinese President Xi on Monday.
However, Macron could in theory enter the war on Ukraine’s behalf, maintain defensive positions, and still claim these troops represent no threat to Russia as long as Russian forces do not attack them. IN other words, Putin can stay in power, but France will not allow Ukraine to be overrun.
Macron put the ball in Ukraine’s court
One of the key factors to note is that Macron himself put the onus on Ukraine, a move that could force his hand. Macron specifically said if Ukraine “requested” support, France could respond with troops. If Ukraine openly requests French assistance, and Macron does not deliver, it will now make him look weak and blustery.
There are virtually countless scenarios now available to Ukraine to take Macron at his word and openly chide France into entering the war. In fact, Ukrainian President Zelensky would be remiss in his duties to not ask France to enter the war at the earliest possible moment, referencing Macron’s past comments on the issue. Ukraine is under dire pressure with manpower and equipment shortages.
French public opinion doesn’t matter
Many are also putting an overemphasis on French polling, which shows the French are overwhelmingly opposed to sending troops. For example, an Odexa poll showed that 68 percent of French respondents said Macron’s comments on sending Western troops to Ukraine were “wrong.”
Many assume that this public stance will tie Macron’s hands. This reading could not be further from the truth.
The reality is that the popular opinion does not count for much in the West. Take for example the issue of immigration. The French public has been overwhelmingly against mass immigration for decades, with even larger numbers of French opposed to continued to mass immigration compared to those opposed to Macron’s comments on sending troops to Ukraine.
What was the end result? Record numbers of immigrants into France.
Macron is a servant of elite opinion and interests, which has been enough to allow him to maintain his grip on power even in the face of abysmal approval ratings throughout his tenure.
Macron is also using the friendly media environment to launch a PR campaign around his recent hawkishness.
“If Russia were to win, the lives of French people would change,” Macron said during a prime-time television interview. “We would no longer have security in Europe.”
It is unlikely Macron can shift public opinion in his favor much, but perhaps enough with the people that matter to ensure his adventure in Ukraine has the backing of the pro-EU elite.
Russia would have trouble responding militarily
Now that Russia is making advances on the battlefield, there are claims that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse and will lose significant territory.
I do not subscribe to this theory. I believe the West has dictated the pace of this war since the beginning. The West, if it wanted to, could quickly ensure a strategic defeat of Russia in a short time, which is why I buy into the idea that this is a “fake war” designed to pin down Russia and Ukraine in a bloody stalemate. The more dead Slavs, the better? Perhaps that is a part of it, but at the same time, there is also a lot of money to be made and laundered through Ukraine.
Russia is in a very difficult situation, one in which it cannot retreat, but also has to expend enormous amounts of material and manpower to make any gains at the front. The West can more or less dictate these gains with the flow of weapons.
It should not be forgotten that the West has sent very limited amounts of weaponry. Germany, for example, has never sent Taurus missiles. The U.S. has never sent Predator drones, stealth fighters, and advanced versions of its main battle tanks. In addition, even while Western main battle tanks have made their way to Ukraine, they have only arrived in limited numbers. The West is also slow-walking the promised F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. They could already be operational if the West wanted them in the skies over Ukraine, and there are plenty of reasons why they are not, despite all of the pretend “training” excuses and claims that Ukraine’s airfields do not have the proper infrastructure.
At the same time, Russia has already played its hand. There is no secret weapon that Russia is holding back. Its full military and domestic production is dedicated to the war in Ukraine. The only real spade is nuclear weapons, and Russia has ruled out using them.
Russia is still a formidable threat, and it has made great leaps in terms of its military progress in the last two years, but how would Russia respond to an escalation from France? Militarily, there are few options. Russia would have to resort to economic warfare, as its ability to punish its enemies through force is highly questionable at this moment in history.
France could claim its intervention is defensive
Certainly, Russia could kill French soldiers in Ukraine, but Russia actually threatening France itself is a very remote possibility. If France entered the war, Macron would have to ensure he is sending a military force capable of putting up a real fight if attacked. Despite naysayers, France deploying its most advanced military assets would be a formidable threat to Russia.
In all likelihood, Macron would attempt to deploy these forces in the most defensive manner possible and try as hard as he could to ensure they avoid open conflict. Russian forces may also balk at directly attacking a NATO member state’s armed forces. If Macron were able to stem a Ukrainian retreat and halt a Russian advance, his star would be tremendously bright in the EU, and there is no doubt that he would help put France back on the international map as a major player.
No matter what, the risks would be enormous.
However, critics have long claimed that Western tanks and artillery would lead to a dire Russian response, which has not happened as of yet. Russia has allowed many “red lines” to be crossed, which may encourage Macron to cross yet another one and enter the conflict directly.
It certainly looks like Macron is prepping the ground for actually moving forward with troops in limited numbers, waiting for Russia’s reaction, and then scaling up these numbers accordingly.
