The former foreign minister of Poland expressed skepticism about the prospect of achieving lasting peace in Ukraine in an interview with Poland’s DoRzeczy.pl.
Witold Waszczykowski warned that the current negotiations could result in only the permanent annexation of Crimea and a majority of the Donbas region, rather than a sustainable peace agreement. Waszczykowski noted that many predict a temporary pause in hostilities, after which Russia might resume its aggressive actions.
Discussing the current situation on the front, Waszczykowski pointed out that it is highly unfavorable for Ukraine. The White House has reported that funds allocated by Congress to support Ukraine are dwindling. He acknowledged that Russia’s strength may have been underestimated, emphasizing that Russia is neither as weak nor as strong as it appears.
Waszczykowski highlighted that, despite several months of conflict, the international community supporting Ukraine has failed to define a clear endgame.
Ukraine, backed by Poland, aimed to defeat Russia and reclaim Crimea and the Donbas, relying on appropriate armaments. However, the support provided was only partial, based on the expectation that Ukraine would make significant breakthroughs within six months to justify further arms supplies.
“I warned about this when the Ukrainian offensive began, saying they had six months. If they don’t show the world progress within six months, deliberations about a compromise, some agreement with Russia, will begin,” said Waszczykowski.
He mentioned the alternative Western European view: Freezing the conflict and providing Ukraine with just enough arms to prevent further Russian expansion but not enough to secure a decisive victory. Without substantial additional support, Ukraine may be forced into a positional war and negotiations that could lead to the permanent loss of Crimea and most of the Donbas.
Waszczykowski also raised concerns about the potential for escalation and aggression against NATO countries in the coming years, citing recent threats by Putin towards Latvia over the Russian minority issue.
He noted Russia’s ongoing military build-up and support for hybrid operations in Belarus and against Finland, indicating a testing of other directions and offensive actions against NATO countries, including Poland, the Baltic states, and Finland.
