After seven Alternative for Germany (AfD) politicians died in the run-up to the North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) elections, the web was abuzz with theories about potential assassinations. However, so far, the evidence points to these politicians dying from ordinary circumstances despite some more fantastical theories floating around.
Still, the “fears” being expressed are going to be an increasing symptom of a polarized and sometimes violent political climate. While the deaths of the AfD politicians should be examined, so far, police investigations have not uncovered any wrongdoing.
Notably, Welt and other German news outlets first reported that the first four deaths were “sudden and unexpected,” a point that Remix News also reported on. That point has since been clarified, with many of the individuals indeed suffering from pre-existing conditions.
Most outlets and influencers just reported the facts — that AfD politicians were dying at a seemingly higher rate than normal — and the facts did appear concerning at first glance and certainly newsworthy. However, some on social media, including some influencers, took this information and made blanket claims that AfD politicians are being killed. In short, this kind of “jumping the gun” is problematic, and while mistakes do happen, they also can harm credibility.
Of course, there are also justifiable reasons for paranoia. AfD politicians have been the most attacked of any political party in Germany. There are many on the far left who fantasize about killing AfD politicians, as AfD politicians are routinely called “Nazis,” and in Germany, there is widespread belief among the left that Nazis only deserve to die. Antifa groups like the Hammer Gang have nearly beaten right-wing activists — and in some cases only suspected right-wing activists — to death.
Even German public figures have called for violence against the AfD, and suffered no consequences for their violent statements.
Nevertheless, all the evidence so far points to the deaths of seven Alternative for Germany (AfD) candidates being entirely natural, with one suicide included.
In total, there are 20,000 candidates running in regional elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, and new information clarifies that a total of 16 candidates have died in the last two months, with seven AfD politicians among them. It must also be remembered that the pool of politicians in Germany is overwhelmingly from an older population, with the baby boomers playing an outsized role.
It may be a slight anomaly that so many AfD politicians have died, but it appears it is not “statistically impossible,” as some commentators initially reported.
The latest death of an AfD politician was an 80-year-old man. Again, all evidence points to a natural death. As Remix News reported, the other six appear to have died from a variety of complications, including a heart attack and another from ongoing kidney disease. Many of them were older individuals with preexisting conditions.
Notably, the local North Rhine-Westphalia AfD association is not alleging any foul play, and they presumably have the best overview of the health of their candidates.
All alternatives highly implausible
One must also consider the implications of an alternative theory. Who would be targeting local AfD politicians with death? To kill these low-level players with some kind of poison or covert mechanism, it would require near state-level resources. It would also require a number of individuals to identify where the politicians live, deliver this covert killing method without being caught, and then meticulous work to ensure that these assassinations could not be traced to the source. Sounds like an extremely high-risk, low-reward endeavor.
Does anyone really think that anyone in the German government is going to partake in this kind of operation? It would arguably be the biggest scandal in the federal republic’s history.
Furthermore, the state has plenty of resources to target the AfD without resorting to targeted and illegal assassinations, which would result in prison time and even serve as a huge boon for the AfD if the information ever came out.
Germany is continuously moving towards a ban of the AfD, has restricted AfD members from holding civil service positions, and is conducting mass surveillance of members and politicians. On top of all that, there is a willing media cheering along every repression of the party. There is not exactly a lack of options at the state’s disposal without taking out local councilors.
The other possibility would be a foreign government, but which foreign government is going to bother killing politicians for a regional state election? Again, it simply is not all that plausible.
Finally, a group of left-wing activists hellbent on killing Nazis? Again, another highly unlikely scenario. In all previous cases that we know of, attacks on AfD politicians have been physical and have not involved a sophisticated poisoning operation. These attacks typically involve arson against AfD politicians’ property and their vehicles, or simple assaults against politicians. It would take a Dexter-level genius, who apparently wanted to spend his or her time killing local AfD politicians of an advanced age, with most having pre-existing conditions.
That is not to say that AfD politicians and other politicians across Europe could not be targeted with poison or some other covert mechanism. These are real concerns of security agencies across the world, and everyone from across the political spectrum could be a potential victim. There is a reason security details clean away DNA from world leaders when visiting foreign countries. Furthermore, low-level politicians have less security, making them easier targets, but high-profile politicians are always more valuable and desired targets.
Some of these scenarios could become more realistic in the future, such as if the AfD were to come to power in Germany, and of course, covert killings using a target’s DNA could be a real development down the road. However, most of the assassination attempts that are publicly known all involve the typical instrument: a gun. As Remix News reported, right-wing politicians have been targeted with assassination attempts over the last two years, including Trump, Fico, and even Orbán to a lesser extent.
The far right is not innocent either, and there have been attacks, and even one assassination, of a local CDU politician.
In short, the political environment is quite polarized.
Expect paranoia, fear, and loathing to be the rule going forward in Germany, especially with the AfD’s popularity reaching a new high point, after a number of polls showed it is the most popular party in the country.
