The latest poll shows that the current ruling coalition would lose power. The shape of the parliamentary majority would be decided by Grzegorz Braun, according to the latest poll from National Research Group.
“This is what it looks like here in August in the OGB study. So much has changed that almost nothing has changed. October 15 coalition without a majority, everything is decided by Braun. Support for Morawiecki’s party as in April, i.e. 5-6 percent. and all this is PiS voters,” pointed out the head of the polling firm, Łukasz Pawłowski.
The leader in the OGB ranking remains the Civic Coalition, which can count on 33.5 percent support, a decrease of as much as 5.4 percentage points. PiS is second in the poll with 22.3 percent, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points.
The right-wing Confederation can count on 15.8 percent. support, an increase of 4.1 percentage points. The party of Grzegorz Braun, Confederation of the Polish Crown, records 10.5 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points.
The New Left would also be included in the Sejm with support of 5.99 percent. (an increase of 0.8 percentage points) and Rozwój Plus. If former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki had founded the party and run independently in the elections, he would have had a chance of winning 5.49 percent. support.
The Razem party (3.6 percent), PSL (1.7 percent) and Polska 2050 (0.9 percent) would fall below the electoral threshold.
Tak to wygląda u nas w sierpniu w badaniu @OGB_PL Tyle się zmieniło, by nie zmieniło się prawie nic. K15X bez większości, o wszystkim decyduje Braun. Poparcie dla partii Morawieckiego jak w kwietniu czyli 5-6% i to wszystko wyborcy PiS
Więcej:https://t.co/9TlfoRs5Id pic.twitter.com/n6KJhZ44k6
— Łukasz Pawłowski (@LukasPawlowski) August 14, 2026Braun will decide the majority?
If the poll support were translated into seats in the Sejm, the Civic Coalition would obtain 185 seats, Law and Justice 126, Confederation 79, Confederation of the Polish Crown 49, New Left 13, and Rozwój Plus eight.
This means that the current ruling coalition would not maintain power. Donald Tusk’s KO party and New Left would have a total of only 198 seats. For the right wing to take power, an alliance between Law and Justice would be needed not only with the Confederation of Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak, but also with Grzegorz Braun’s group. Such a majority would have 254 votes, and together with Mateusz Morawiecki’s formation, it would jump to 262.
There have been some calls to ban Braun’s party, but such a move would face high legal hurdles. Given its polling numbers, such an outcome seems unlikely. However, PiS has indicated they would refuse an alliance with the party, raising questions about how sincere that promise would be should Braun’s party remain the only path to political power.
The OGB survey was conducted between Aug. 5 and 12 based on 1,000 respondents.
