Ukraine increased its electricity imports from EU countries an incredible 550 percent in 2024, and received by far the largest proportion of electricity during the year, 39 percent, from Hungary, according to preliminary data for 2024 published yesterday.
The summary was published on Thursday by the Ukrainian energy consulting company ExPro, along with the following spectacular figure. This clearly shows that after the heavy Russian bombing of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the spring, Hungary’s weight in Ukrainian electricity imports jumped dramatically, and until autumn, it had the largest weight among the five EU import sources.
The EU increased the permitted technical limit for electricity exports to Ukraine from 1,700 to 2,100 MW in early autumn 2024, in view of the loss of more and more Ukrainian electricity generation capacity and the looming severe electricity shortage in winter. This also meant that more export capacity fell to Hungary.
As a result, the Ukrainian electricity import data for 2024 was as follows, according to ExPro’s summary:
- In 2024, Ukraine increased electricity imports by 5.5 times compared to 2023 to 4.4 million MWh.
- Hungary’s share of the entire annual import amounted to 39 percent, Slovakia 23 percent, Romania 18 percent, Poland 14 percent, and Moldova 5 percent.
- The peak of Ukrainian electricity imports in 2024 was in June, with a total of more than 850,000 MWh delivered.
Ukrainian electricity imports in December 2024 were as follows:
- Ukraine has increased its electricity imports by 2.6 times compared to November 2024, to more than 430,000 MWh, due to colder weather and further deteriorating electricity generation capabilities.
- Hungary continued to have the largest share in the import structure, accounting for 35 percent. It is also important that imports from Hungary increased the most in the month: specifically, four times, to 152,000 MWh.
- Slovakia represented the second-largest share of Ukrainian electricity imports in December, with 25 percent, and this is why Ukraine must pay attention to the serious Slovak threats to examine the blocking of Slovak electricity exports to Ukraine due to the shutdown of Ukrainian gas transit.
It is also worth adding that at the end of the new year, the Polish system operator gave a signal that if Slovak electricity exports to Ukraine were to fall, they would respond flexibly and increase their own exports to Ukraine.
According to a statement from Polish Energy Networks (PSE) at the time, if Slovakia did not provide more capacity on the interconnection with Ukraine, then the capacity on this border could be distributed according to the established rules among other EU countries. Poland’s share is 15 percent (315 MW). Depending on the operating conditions of the connected systems, this value may vary.
What is certain is that Ukrainian gas transit to the EU stopped yesterday morning, so now it is theoretically Slovakia’s turn to take some steps towards fulfilling its threat, if it so chooses.
The cessation of gas transit is primarily unfavorable for Slovakia, as it will lose transit revenues collected from the transmission of gas, and in the case of westward procurement, it will have to pay higher transportation costs due to longer routes. This could amount to €200 million to €300 million per year at the country level, which would likely be a manageable additional cost.
