Polls show Poland’s conservative Law and Justice (PiS) far ahead of the opposition

By Grzegorz Adamczyk
3 Min Read

Law and Justice (PiS) can count on 36.3 percent of support, an increase of over 2-percentage points compared to the previous survey, according to the newest poll conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska. Meanwhile, the Civic Platform (PO) can count on only 25.5 percent, representing a 2-percentage point decrease. In third would be Poland 2050, with 10.6 percent (a 0.6-percentage point drop).

The Confederation and the Left could both receive 8 percent of the votes (representing a 2-percentage point and 1 percentage point increase, respectively). The Polish People’s Party (PSL) would find itself below the election threshold with 4.8 percent.

Another 6.4 percent of voters are unsure for whom they would vote for.

The survey also noted that 58.5 percent of voters would participate in the elections, representing a 6-percentage point growth. The data showed that 40.2 percent stated that they would “definitely” take part and 18.3 percent said they would “probably” take part. At the same time, 37.6 percent of Poles said they would not participate in the elections, with 27.3 percent answering that they “definitely” would not and 10.3 percent that they “probably would not”. Another 3.9 percent of Poles did not know whether they would go to the ballots.

The United Surveys poll was carried out on Aug. 27 using the CATI method on a group of 1,000 people.

Another poll which confirms rise in support for PiS and a drop for PO is the most recent survey carried out by the Institute for Social Research and Market (IBRiS) for Rzeczpospolita daily.

According to IBRiS, PiS maintains a comfortable lead with over 35 percent of the vote and while PO continues to see a slight rise in support due to Donald Tusk’s return, it has only 25.7 percent of support. Around 10 percent of voters have chosen each: Poland 2050 and the Left, while the Confederation can count on 6 percent of support.

Compared to an IBRiS survey from a month ago, PiS has recorded close to 2-percentage points more from voters while PO and Poland 2050 have experienced slight drops. The Left has surged by over 2-percentage points in support, PSL has lost 1-percentage point and the Confederation has gained 1-percentage point.

The group of undecided voters has also shrunk – there were 11.8 percent undecided in July and 9.2 percent in August. According to the poll, 53.8 percent of Poles would participate in the elections if they were held last weekend and 39.3 percent would not do so, while 7 percent were unsure.

The IBRiS survey was conducted using the CATI method between Aug. 27-28 on a group of 1,100 respondents.

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