The Polish Constitutional Tribunal’s ruling from mid-July decided that the article in the EU treaty, based on which the CJEU obliged member states to introduce interim measures to their judiciaries, is incompatible with the Polish constitution. The situation has also sparked a return to discussion over Poland potentially leaving the EU (so-called “Polexit”).
In its justification, the Tribunal pointed out that the EU cannot replace member states when it comes to the creation of judiciary regulations. A few days after the ruling, PM Mateusz Morawiecki declared however that “there is no risk of Polexit and it is a kind of political fantasy.”
He added that Polexit is a kind of political mood which the government’s political opponents are trying to stimulate.
Nevertheless, some commentators believe that Poland has never been so close to exiting the EU.
“Not because this is the declared plan of the government or the desire of the EU headquarters, but because this is the direction in which the logic of events leads, over which rationally thinking people have an increasingly smaller influence,” Jędrzej Bielecki, foreign columnist of “Rzeczpospolita”, said.
“Do you believe that Poland should leave the European Union?”
16.9 percent answered yes, 62.6 percent of the surveyed opposed the notion, and 20.5 percent did not offer an opinion.
Opposition politicians were some of the most outspoken when it came to the possibility of Poland leaving the EU. Speaker of the Senate Tomasz Grodzki believes that there are increasingly clear signals of a preparation for Polexit. Donald Tusk used the opportunity to strike against his political opponents, declaring that “Kaczyński and his party are leaving the EU, not Poland.”
But what do Poles think of the possibility of Poland leaving the EU?
A survey conducted by SW Research for “Rzeczpospolita” asked the question: “Do you believe that Poland should leave the European Union?”
In answer to this question, 16.9 percent of respondents replied “yes”, 62.6 percent of the surveyed opposed the notion, and 20.5 percent did not have an opinion.
Senior Project Manager at SW Research explained that 68 percent of respondents aged 50 and above negatively viewed the idea of Polexit. Among respondents with higher education, 69 percent were opposed to the idea. In addition, 70 percent of people with income between EUR 438 and EUR 657 were opposed to the idea as well. Close to 75 percent of people living in towns with populations between 100,000 – 199,000 were against Poland leaving.
More men are in favor of leaving the EU (22 percent vs. 12 percent of women), while 22 percent of the inhabitants of the smallest towns in Poland support Polexit.