With the U.S. engaging so actively in the war in Ukraine, it was forced to immediately open a transport hub close to the Ukrainian border. As a consequence, a key U.S. outpost for U.S. interests was established in Poland, and this will have an impact on the coming Polish election.
The ruling conservatives in Poland are a highly convenient interlocutor for the current Biden administration. This is because they are engaging in the implementation of American strategy, and in addition, they are adding Polish financial resources to the mix.
Moreover, should the strategy be unsuccessful, the liberal Biden administration can always switch to blaming an ideologically alien Polish government, which in the U.S. is presented as right-wing and ultra-conservative. The U.S. will be watching the coming Polish elections like a hawk to make sure that it does not lead to instability and the growth of influence of Kremlin-friendly forces.
The irony in all this is that American influence may help in guaranteeing a reasonably robust electoral process. The work of the Americans could help in neutralizing German support for the liberal PO, as Germany may be hoping for a government in Warsaw that is more inclined to allow Berlin a greater say in what happens in the ongoing conflict in the east.
If the Americans do seriously engage in Poland, they are likely to have influence over who is in the next Polish administration. This could even lead to some surprising personnel changes in the ruling conservatives if they manage to win the coming election.
