Rafał Chwedoruk, a political scientist from the University of Warsaw, is skeptical of how genuine Poland’s right-wing Confederation party is in threatening to pull the rug from under the present conservative government in order to create a political crisis that would lead to another election.
He believes that Confederation is forced to say such things because their voters are hostile to the ruling party and they do not want to make the same mistake as other parties and limit their options for a future coalition.
The expert feels that Confederation does not have to enter any coalition but may be willing to contemplate parliamentary cooperation. This, he is certain, is far more likely than Confederation attempting to force fresh elections.
He argues that voters do not like parties that force them to go to the polls again and that parties in Poland that have done this came to regret it; the ruling PiS is the classic example of this in 2007 when it lost the early election it triggered.
Chwedoruk is convinced that MPs who will have just gone through an exhausting and costly campaign will do everything in their power to avoid having to go through the whole process again and risk failure.
It will be far easier to find a majority for a minority government than a majority for self-dissolution, argues Chwedoruk.
The political scientist also believes that Confederation is internally divided not only in terms of ideas but also interests. For some, this may be the one and only chance to hold office or to stay in politics for longer. For them, entering the government would be a solution. However, there are those who would not want to enter into a coalition and risk everything they have been working on for a long time.
They are aware that the Confederation’s entry into a coalition, for example with Law and Justice (PiS), would mean an immediate loss of the majority of their voters.
However, hostility toward PiS does not mean that Confederation is likely to form a coalition with the liberal Civic Platform (PO). This is because the PO will not be able to persuade its voters to accept such a deal.
Either way, Chwedoruk believes that for Confederation to enter a formal coalition would mean the party would knock itself out of the game. This is why he believes that a minority government is the most likely outcome of the upcoming election in Poland.