A poll taken by the IBRiS agency for the daily Rzeczpospolita shows the ruling party has reached its highest level of support since the first half of 2022.
Compared with January’s figures, support for the ruling conservatives of Law and Justice (PiS) has risen from 29.7 to 33.9 percent, whereas support for the main opposition party, the liberal Civic Coalition (KO), has risen from 25.4 to 27.3 percent.
The Left is third with 9 percent, and the other liberal grouping, Poland 2050, has slipped back to 8.3 percent. Two more parties, the right Confederation with 5.6 percent and the Polish People’s Party (PSL) with 5.1 percent, managed to cross the electoral threshold of 5 percent. However, the number of undecided voters is 11 percent, and the projected turnout is 49 percent.
Political analyst Marcin Palade says that if undecided voters are excluded from the sample, it shows an even bigger lead for the ruling conservatives. On that basis, PiS has 38 percent and KO 30.6 percent.
This is a more realistic way of presenting the figures since those who are undecided often do not vote or eventually make their minds up, which, if anything, should favor the ruling party even more.
Palade points to the fact that across the polls, support for the ruling party looks to have risen from 34 to 36 percent, where it has seemed stuck for several months; meanwhile, support for the liberals has stabilized at 30 percent or just under. The other liberal party, Poland 2050, looks to be slipping back, and there has been little gain or loss for the other three parties.
Marcin Palade says that to get a better picture of what is going on, you need to observe trends across a month or a quarter and no single poll should be taken at face value. He also warns against dodgy polls that show results with big divergences from the average support for any party. These, he says, should be treated with suspicion.