Polish election: New poll shows left-liberal opposition could squeak by and defeat ruling conservatives

By Grzegorz Adamczyk
3 Min Read

In the last week, the lead of the Law and Justice (PiS) party over the Civic Coalition (KO) has increased. However, the opposition could still possibly secure a slim majority in the Polish parliament, the Sejm, according to a survey conducted by IBRiS for Onet.pl news outlet

The survey shows that 34.9 percent of respondents support the Law and Justice (PiS) party, marking a 0.9 percent increase from a poll taken a week earlier.

The Civic Coalition (KO) ranks second, with 28.1 percent of respondents indicating their support, a decrease of 0.8 percent from the previous week.

The support for the next two election committees — Third Way and Left — is almost identical. The coalition list of the Polish People’s Party and Poland 2050 (Third Way) received 10.3 percent of the votes, down 0.3 percent from the previous poll. The combined votes would allow the Third Way to surpass the 8-percent election threshold for coalitions, avoiding the fate of the United Left, which did not make it to the Sejm in 2015 with 7.55 percent.

Meanwhile, the Left would receive votes from exactly one in ten Poles, maintaining their numbers from the previous week.

However, the right-wing Confederation party is shrinking. The party, represented by Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak, experienced the most significant drop in support of all parties, down 1.4 percent to 8.3 percent.

The poll indicates that representatives of the Non-partisan Local Government Officials would not make it to the Sejm, garnering only 1.4 percent support. The Poland Is One party received 0.4 percent support. Another 6.6 percent of respondents remain undecided on their voting choice.

A mandate distribution simulation conducted by Onet suggests PiS would have 197 votes in the Sejm, preventing them from forming a majority government.

The Civic Coalition would introduce 154 members, Third Way would have 41, and the Left 38. Together, these three parties would have a minimal majority of 233 members, which would put them three sets over the 230 required. The United Right would not have enough seats even with a coalition with the Confederation party, which would have 29 seats.

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