ING bank is now predicting that Polish GDP will be down 1.3 points from previous forecasts, making attaining 4 percent growth an optimistic scenario. Polish GDP took a hit in 2020 as a result of the pandemic but bounced back strongly in 2021, growing by 5.7 percent.
But the coming 12 months are expected to be tough because of the war in Ukraine.
ING had expected Poland’s economy to grow by 4.5 percent this year, but as a result of the hostilities in Ukraine, they have now revised the growth forecast down to 3.2 percent. The estimate has been revised downward because of anxiety over the disruption in international trade and the general anxiety among both consumers and businesses, which is expected to constrain spending and domestic demand.
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Forecasters fear a rise in energy and raw material prices leading to a fall in purchasing power. The cuts in tax on fuel are temporary, while the rise in prices of oil and gas may be accelerating as a result of war. The military conflict could also affect Polish efforts to secure supplies of raw materials.
Monika Kurtek, the Bank Pocztowy’s chief economist, fears that the growth witnessed in 2021 and in the first month of 2022 are unlikely to be replicated for a long time. She expects the figures for March to be affected by the war, with declining confidence seen from consumers and businesses, higher inflation and fewer exports.
She fears that 4 percent growth in 2022 is now unattainable, and that growth of as little as 1.5 to 2.5 percent is a more likely prospect.