According to the latest CBOS poll, the Civic Coalition (KO) widened its lead over Law and Justice (PiS) in May, while support for the right-wing Confederation also increased compared to the mid-April survey. Meanwhile, Grzegorz Braun’s Korona party would also enter the Sejm.
The ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk polled at 30.8 percent, a drop of 1.2 points from its April showing. And in what the Do Rzeczy news portal called “disastrous” results for PiS, the party led by Jarosław Kaczyński saw a slight increase in support, from 18.2 percent to 19.6 percent, but still lags KO by over 11 points.
The largest increase among the major parties was recorded by the Confederation of Freedom and Independence (“Confederation”), with an increase in support from 13 percent in April to 15.3 percent in May. Meanwhile, Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation of the Polish Crown saw its ratings decline 8.7 percent to 8.1 percent.
The New Left received 4.7 percent in May, compared to 5.8 percent in April, and the Razem party fell from 4.9 percent to 3 percent. The Polish People’s Party (PSL) and Poland 2050, which together formed the Third Way coalition, also remain below the electoral threshold at 2.2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, pushing them out of parliament — and Tusk’s ruling majority alliance — entirely.
If the parliamentary elections were held in early May, 76.6 percent of Poles eligible to vote would take part.
The main issue recently facing PiS has been constant rumors that former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is planning to form his own party, fueled by his establishment of the Rozwój Plus Association, although he insists it is not meant ot challenge Law and Justice as a party.
“Yes, I confirm the Rozwój Plus Association has been established. Our goal is to create additional space for dialogue, exchange of experiences, and initiating activities supporting Poland’s social and economic development,” Morawiecki told journalists at the time.
Former PiS Prime Minister Beata Szydło told Radio Zet that she saw no risk that Morawiecki would leave PiS. She also noted that there is no PiS ban on such associations, while also adding that their “activities must be consistent with and support our political work, not be in opposition.”
Still, PiS leadership was clearly threatened, with spokesperson Rafał Bochenek announcing in April that anyone who fails to resign from Mateusz Morawiecki’s association will face disciplinary action.
As of now, no formal disciplinary actions appear to have been taken, and there are unverified reports that some sort of compromise was reached, or the party has simply been assured that Morawiecki will not be leaving PiS to set up his own party and pursue his own political ambitions.
However, with PiS continuing to lag Tusk’s coalition, tensions will remain.
Poland will hold its next parliamentary election in the autumn of 2027.
