The likelihood of an assault on Romania is highly improbable due to its status as a member of NATO and as such Romanian citizens should remain calm despite Russia’s advancement into Ukraine, the Romanian Defense Minister Vasile Dîncu said on Wednesday.
“At this moment, a war on the territory of Romania is excluded, and the probability of an attack on our country tends to zero,” Dîncu told viewers of Romanian television channel, TVR.
The Romanian defense minister assured Romanians that NATO analysis concludes that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not “believe in a utopia of the reunification of Russia of Catherine II or Peter the Great,” and Dîncu argued that he does not believe that was feasible without infringing on the sovereignty of a NATO member, a move that would guarantee a full-scale world war.
“It would be a proof of madness” for Russia to invade a NATO member, “and we do not believe in this scenario,” Dîncu claimed.
Asked how likely it is, on a scale of one to 10, that Romania will be attacked, the defense minister replied that the probability “tends to zero at this moment, 0.1, almost 1,” he replied.
He called on citizens to “remain calm” despite Russian aggression and the rising of tensions across Europe.
“In the military field, military experts know very well what the balance or imbalance of forces is at a given time,” Dîncu explained. “Putin has deployed 150,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, experts say enough to carry out a battle on Ukrainian territory for a certain period, because it is not known how long he could last here.
“That is why it is not the case, no matter what President Vladimir Putin is trying to impress, it is not the case to think at this moment, at the level of civil society, at the level of citizens, of such a possibility [of an attack on Romania].”
“Obviously, this possibility is being considered, but it seems totally unlikely at the moment. I believe that people can rest easy from this point of view,” said Dîncu.
He did however stress that war in the region would have other consequences for Romania and its citizens, and raised concerns about energy, banking and trade.
Regarding the potential loss of energy resources, namely natural gas which flows into Europe from Russian gas fields, Dîncu highlighted that Romania is “luckily not 100 percent dependent on Russia, unlike other countries,” and thus any interruption in supply will be mitigated on that front.
However Romanian trade in Russia, while not that significant, does exist, and Dîncu warned Romanians that this would be disrupted.
“The activity of some institutions can be disrupted, for example, through electronic warfare, because in this field, of electronic warfare, you cannot stop such attacks at the border,” the Romanian defense minister explained. “But these are not consequences that could endanger people’s lives,” he added.