Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk, a political scientist from the University of Warsaw, feels that the biggest loser of the last few weeks of the election campaign in Poland is the Confederation party. The ruling party has stolen its thunder by taking a more skeptical stance on Ukraine, while the liberals have produced proposals for cutting taxes, rather similar to those of Confederation.
Moreover, the party has come under far closer scrutiny from both its opponents and the media, while being totally excluded from public media and marginalized in the pro-liberal TVN network and the opposition-leaning newspapers.
Prof. Chwedoruk believes it is far too early to say who won the clash between the opposition’s march in Warsaw against the large ruling party rally in Katowice. He feels the race is very tight and will be decided by how well both the opposition and the ruling party are at mobilizing their supporters.
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He observes that the ruling conservatives, Law and Justice (PiS), has clearly focused on mobilizing its core supporters in recent days. Hence, socio-economic issues are less highlighted in the headlines, while issues related to identity and international politics are more prominent. This shows concerns about problems with mobilizing the traditional right-wing electorate.
The liberals, led by Donald Tusk, have in the last few days turned away from a confrontational tone, emphasizing rather their willingness to work with other opposition parties such as the Left and the Third Way coalition.
Chwedoruk feels that the liberals have realized that they would suffer, if either the Left or Third Way got squeezed out, as it needs allies in parliament to form a government. This is why the liberals are holding out olive branches and showing a smiling face to attract the undecided.
The Left has succeeded in showing itself to be more committed to women’s rights and a secular state than the liberals, as well as being more caring and having ideas on how to tackle the housing crisis, according to the Polish professor.
The Third Way, Chwedoruk thinks, is trying to differentiate itself from the liberals, and that is why it did not march with the liberals on the weekend.
