The latest surveys show a clear drop-in support for the ruling party Law and Justice (PiS). According to the latest poll carried out by the Estymator research center for news portal DoRzeczy.pl, PiS can count on 35.3 percent of support — a 2.3-percentage point decrease compared to previous surveys.
In terms of seats in parliament, given that level of support, PiS could count on possessing 194 seats. This means that the ruling camp would lose 41 seats compared to the number they had following the 2019 parliamentary elections.
Second in the survey came the Civic Platform (PO) with 23.8 percent of support (a 0.8 percentage point decrease) and therefore, would have 115 seats (19 seats less than it currently has.
Third would be Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 with 15.8 percent of the votes (a 3-percentage point increase) and 71 seats in parliament.
The survey results were commented on by political scientist Andrzej Anusz who listed two main reasons for PiS’ drop in support.
“A key factor is the inflation issue and the economic situation. For many years PiS has been building its credibility. Since 2015, it has been doing so through social policy and social transfers such as the ‘500+’ child benefit program, higher pensions and school support for children and youth,” he said.
The expert noted that PiS’ social programs were the first time when Poles “got something” from the state since 1989. Previously, there was “a social philosophy of building a market economy and everyone having to count on themselves.”
“This was changed and Poles felt the benefits associated with such a policy. PiS became credible,” Anusz noted.
He emphasized that PiS’ hitherto supporters do not intend to move their votes over to another party. Recent reports on the current economic situation, inflation and rise in energy prices have encouraged some, however, to withhold their support.
“This, in my opinion, has led to PiS’ shortness of breath when it comes to polling. Nevertheless, if there wasn’t a crisis on the border, then perhaps this drop would’ve been even more significant,” Anusz warned.