In an EU-funded article, an organization close to the European Commission urges the “Coalition of the Willing” of countries to deploy troops to Ukraine before the ceasefire. The coalition is made up of 33 countries, with most of them consisting of EU countries such as France, Germany, Italy, Estonia, but also non-EU countries like the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia.
The article, produced on the website of the European Policy Centre (EPC), a Brussels-based think tank, featured an opinion piece that suggested EU member states to begin sending troops now, which would be the only way for Ukraine to maintain its resistance against Russia. These troops would not serve on the frontline, but in “advisory” and support roles.
The piece states that if this does not happen, Ukraine will collapse, and in turn, the Russians will become more aggressive.
However, a surge of Western troops in Ukraine, may also be seen by Russia as a sharp escalation that could draw them away from peace talks. In other words, it would be an excellent way for the pro-war wing in the EU to keep the war going for the foreseeable future.
As Hungarian news outlet Mandiner writes, “The article is, of course, much more than a simple opinion piece: The EPC is one of the most influential think tanks, with many ties to the European Commission; and the article itself was funded by the EU.”
The Coalition of the Willing (CoW) is, they say, evolving into a real military force, and rapidly moving beyond the original four-step approach of British and French leaders. However, it remains unclear if and when this force will deploy to Ukraine, as Russia has labeled such a move one of its “red lines.”
However, the think tank writes that this coalition must “set credible limits on Russia’s ability to escalate.”
The think tank points out that the Russians ignored the 30-day unconditional ceasefire and instead “escalated strikes against civilian and energy infrastructure,” with many civilian casualties, including minors.
In addition, there was the strike on Krivoy Rog on April 4, where 21 people died, including nine children.
According to the authors, the Russians’ willingness to negotiate increases if they see a strong deterrent on the other side, and the CoW may be able to demonstrate this, and indeed, only this can bring diplomatic solutions closer, which “objectively … have the means to deter Russia.”
They also cite reports from the Ukrainian intelligence service, claiming that Russia is preparing for a decisive attack on a 1,200-kilometer front this summer.
The article also supports this assertion with the fact that Russia is mobilizing 160,000 Russian recruits, although Mandiner points out that this recruiting drive has happened every year, and the number is only a few tens of thousands higher than before.
The decree to this effect, signed by Putin, was posted on the Kremlin website on Sunday.
The article admits also admits that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. It lacks human resources, ammunition, and logistical capabilities. However, this has often been claimed in order to justify more billions for Ukraine, as well as more military equipment. The article says sending EU troops to Ukraine is essential to help it before the summer, because this is also the key to Europe’s security.
All of this requires immediate reinforcement of forces, protection of critical infrastructure, and increased training and tactical assistance.
The article laments the delay in arms deliveries and the insufficiency of financial assistance, and of course brings up the political changes in Washington, namely the return of President Donald Trump, while also acknowledging NATO’s insufficient role.
The article envisions the current rapid deployment of those willing countries in the form of thousands of “advisors and operational planners.” This means that these troops would not yet be on the front lines, but could improve Ukrainian capabilities by setting up training and logistics centers. According to the article, this in itself could unsettle the Russians, as it would send a strong message.
It also lists the acquisition of air defense solutions needed to protect critical infrastructure, as well as the air defense of Kyiv and other hinterland cities, as part of the CoW. Marines would be deployed in Odessa to protect the Black Sea coast, it lists. These troops would also focus on cyber defense.
They would also speed up the training of Ukrainians with new, Western-style weapons. Military advisors would also help with their strategic use.
The article argues at length that the Russians are now planning their latest large-scale attack, lambasting Europe for “failing to take decisive action for more than a decade” and for missing many opportunities to deter Moscow.
“Failure to provide adequate military and strategic support at this critical stage of the war will embolden Moscow, especially in the face of a significant shift in U.S. policy,” they write. Failure to do so will reward Russian aggression, they add. But they also suggest a small advantage for Europe, beyond the fact that a Ukraine collapse would undermine European security stability: The West could gain valuable experience in the nature of modern warfare, essential in the event of a potentially widening conflict.
