While Africa is experiencing an unprecedented population explosion, it is the exception, not the rule, Magyar Nemzet writes. Meanwhile, although the topic of Europe’s aging population and labor shortages appear often in the press, the numbers are far more serious in East Asia, the largest economic region in the world after North America.
South Korea’s Statistics Korea reported a fertility rate (the number of children a woman will give birth to during her lifetime) of 0.72 in 2023, the lowest ever recorded in the world. It improved slightly in 2024 but is still below one. A level of 2.1 is needed to keep the population stable.
Japan, which has been struggling with a declining birth rate for decades, has a fertility rate of 1.2. Meanwhile, in China, despite replacing its one-child policy with a three-child one, the country is struggling to reverse its population decline, with its population falling for the third year in a row in 2024.
Besides the issue of labor shortages and economic challenges, these countries all face issues financing their pension and healthcare systems. In Japan, the labor shortage has already led to a surge in robots working in elderly care, while tax revenues are falling. Nearly 30 percent of Japanese society is over 65, and the state spends nearly half of its welfare spending on pensions.
This drastic demographic shift was one of the reasons for Japan’s economic slowdown and then stagnation, something Japanese refer to as their “lost decades.”
China and South Korea face the same dire future.
By 2050, one in three Chinese will be retired, while the number of workers in the country will drastically decrease. This will not only create internal problems within China, but could also easily destroy Beijing’s plans to take over the U.S. as the world’s leading power.
South Korean women had an average of six children after the Korean War, but their daughters had only three, and their granddaughters today will likely have at most one or no children at all. As a result, 40 percent of South Korea’s population will be over 65 by 2050, which economic analysts say will lead to the collapse of South Korea’s economic miracle.
There are also security concerns, due to its neighbor, Magyar Nemzet adds. The population of North Korea is growing, meaning it could eventually have a superior military than South Korea, which could also be forced in the future to conscript women or to rely even more on foreign, especially American, aid. The former would take valuable labor from the economy, not to mention the fact that it could drive the birth rate even lower, while the latter would increase the burden on state coffers.
To address the crisis and increase fertility, China has introduced its three-child policy, and Tokyo will extend free daycare starting this September to all preschoolers, not just second and subsequent children. Japan has other plans as well, namely, a four-day workweek for public employees and fewer working hours for parents with young children.
While Western Europe has opted to import workers to fill labor gaps, the consequences have been dramatic, as the clash of cultures, poor integration, and stress on welfare and education systems have been compounded by rising crime, often violent, by those who fail to settle in and find work. Sometimes, as with the Christmas market attack in Magdeburg, Germany, the perpetrator is a long-time resident of his adopted country and a practicing doctor, although his medical license has come under serious scrutiny.
Japan has also relied on imported workers. However, it follows a strictly regulated migration policy to avoid conflict and parallel communities. Workers are hired for a certain period of time to do jobs for which Japanese companies cannot find labor locally. After their employment contracts expire, they leave. The country’s 2.3 million guest workers make up just 2 percent of Japan’s population of 124.5 million. Imported labor also comes from Vietnam, the Philippines and other places culturally close to Japan.
Ukraine is the latest country to face the reality of its demographic crisis, with serious questions regarding its ability to rebuild after the war ends. Millions of Ukrainians have left their country and hundreds of thousands of men are dead or wounded, leading some to believe the only solution is workers from the Third World.
As Remix News recently discussed, this could lead to further tensions in Ukrainian society, as many of the soldiers who return meet a society where they have essentially been replaced.
As Magyar Nemet points out, future demographic success and avoiding issues with pensions, healthcare, and economic growth will depend on government support and other programs, such as labor market reforms, preventative healthcare, and housing policy. However, there will also need to be a shift in social attitudes.
