Donald Tusk’s opposition march had marginal impact on Polish voting intentions

The United Right remains leading in the polls, but the liberal Civic Coalition (KO) has narrowed the gap

editor: Grzegorz Adamczyk

The Warsaw opposition march organized by Donald Tusk failed to sway the majority of Polish voters who favor the ruling United Right, a recent survey showed.

According to polling conducted by the Institute for Social and Economic Research (IBRiS), fewer than 6 percent of Poles said the June 4 march altered their political preferences. The United Right continues to lead in the polls, but Civic Coalition (KO) is narrowing the gap.

Respondents were asked whether the march influenced their voting intentions in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

In the case of 92.3 percent of respondents, the opposition’s demonstration did not make them change their political preferences. On the contrary, 5.9 percent stated that the march was pivotal in changing who they would vote for, while 1.8 percent of respondents were unable to provide a definitive answer to the question.

IBRiS also examined which party would win the elections if they were held next Sunday. The conservative United Right would amass 33.5 percent of the votes, with the liberal opposition’s Civic Coalition coming second with 28.3 percent. The right-wing Confederation party would take a significant 11.7 percent share of the vote.

Other parties included the Third Way, a coalition of the Polish People’s Party (PSL) and Poland 2050, which would get 10.6 percent, according to the poll, and the Left Together party would see a result of 9.7 percent. The remaining respondents did not express a specific opinion.

Compared to the previous IBRiS survey from last month, support for the United Right decreased by 1 percentage point and support for Civic Coalition increased by 3.7 percentage points.

The survey also explored voter turnout, with 52 percent of respondents affirming they would “definitely” exercise their right to vote and 8.4 percent indicating they would “probably” do so.

Meanwhile, 13.5 percent of respondents stated they would “probably not” participate in the elections, and 22.3 percent said they would “definitely not” vote. The remaining respondents had not made a final decision.

On Sunday, June 4, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of Warsaw. The march was organized by Donald Tusk, the leader of the main opposition force, Civic Platform (PO). In his address to the crowd, he stated, “Do not fear, no one will drown out our voices today. We stand here with Poland in our hearts, unwavering against oppression, intimidation or discouragement. Today, we gather to show the strength of our nation to Poland, Europe and the world.”

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