The general opinion on the military developments in the Ukraine war is rather optimistic, and a Russian victory is not even being considered, but what would happen if Putin wins? What would it mean to the Polish strategic situation?
Asking that question is key to understanding why we are putting everything else aside just to keep Russia at a distance from our borders. In this case, that “distance” is in Ukraine.
I am completely confident that the federation idea of Marshal Józef Piłsudski was, and even now, is still the only correct geopolitical strategy for Poland. It is the only realistic one (Józef Piłsudski was the leader of the Second Polish Republic during the interwar period).
He argued that Poland needs to keep independent buffer states between its borders and the modern Soviet state, which is Putin’s Russia.
During that time the Soviet Union was Poland’s biggest enemy, and the concept Piłsudski created would mean weakening the Soviets and strengthening Poland if it came into effect. This is reinforced by the past experiences, even from the time of the 1920 Polish-Soviet war. What is even more important, modern strategic analyses also argue the same point.
Yes, now there is the Kaliningrad Oblast to our north, but the Russians cannot move and build up enough forces to launch a truly effective attack, unless the Baltic States cease to exist or leave NATO. The Kaliningrad Oblast is surrounded by NATO forces. Even if the Russians carried out an attack from the territory of Belarus, we would still be able to successfully defend: for instance, in the “bridgehead” region east of Warsaw, just like in the year 1920, during the Polish-Soviet war.
However, if a direct border with Russia would become longer, and include the current Polish-Ukrainian border, Poland would be in an extremely tough situation, according to analysis from strategists and military experts. Mere deployment of Russian troops in front of Medyka and Przemyśl would be a serious danger to Poland’s existence.
This is where the Polish attitude is coming from. The words of the Polish President Lech Kaczynski in Georgia, who predicted this situation in 2008, were not only prophetical, but also were a clearsighted view of the political future. That is why on every field, including information and media fronts, we must take part in this war.
And we’re doing just that. Down with the Soviets.