Poland: Ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) is surging in the polls

By Grzegorz Adamczyk
3 Min Read

A new survey shows the United Right, the coalition made up of Law and Justice (PiS) and smaller allied parties, remains in first place with a dominant 41 percent of support — a 4-percentage point increase compared to a previous survey from two weeks ago.

According to a survey carried out by Social Changes research center for portal wPolityce.pl, in second came the largest opposition party, the Civic Platform (PO), with 23 percent of support (a 1-percentage point decrease), and in third was Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050, with 13 percent of support (a 1-percentage point decrease).

Other parties which would cross the election threshold are the Confederation with 10 percent of votes (a 1-percentage point increase) and the Left with 7 percent (a 2-percentage point decrease).

Additionally, Kukiz’15 has 2 percent of support (no changes) the Polish People’s Party (PSL) has 1 percent (no change), and Jarosław Gowin’s Agreement has 1 percent (no change). The three parties would all find themselves below the election threshold necessary to enter parliament. One percent of respondents chose the “other parties” option.

Which political party would you vote for if elections to the Polish parliament were held this Sunday?
Light blue – Untied Right, Orange – Civic Platform, Yellow – Poland 2050, Dark blue – Confederation, Red – the Left, Dark green – Kukiz’15, Light green – Polish People’s Party, Purple – Agreement, Grey – Other (Source: Social Changes/wPolityce.pl)

Portal wPolityce.pl explained that the huge surge in support for the United Right stems from the current crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border caused by Alexander Lukashenko. The portal believes that due to its stance towards the crisis, the opposition has harmed its own polling.

If parliamentary elections took place this Sunday, the turnout rate would be 62 percent. Forty-six percent of respondents stated that they “definitely” wanted to participate, and 16 percent declared that they “probably would.” Thiry-six percent did not want to take part; 16 percent said they “definitely would not” and 20 percent that they “probably would not.” Two percent of respondents were undecided.

The survey was carried out using the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method on 1,069 Polish adults between Nov. 12-15.

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