According to Statistics Poland (GUS), Poland’s GDP decreased by 0.5 percent year over year in the second quarter of 2023.
Previously, Poland’s economy contracted by 0.3 percent y-o-y in the first quarter of 2023, after 2.3 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. Now, for the second quarter running, the economy has contracted, this time by 0.5 percent.
When adjusted for seasonal factors (after taking into account the differences in working hours in subsequent months), GDP fell by 3.7% from last year’s Q2 figures.
This is more than had been forecast. Economists surveyed by the Polish Press Agency (PAP) expected GDP to fall by 0.2 percent for the April-June period and point to a fall in consumer spending as the cause of the downturn.
However, PKO Bank Polski maintains that GDP will rise by 0.7 percent for the year and by 3.2 percent in 2024. They are banking on an upturn in consumer spending and increased investment, as well as buoyant export figures from the third quarter onwards. Analysts from other banks are more circumspect, feeling that the recovery is more likely to come in the fourth quarter of the year.