This is a completely different campaign than what the opposition had planned — a campaign in which, from the perspective of the Third Polish Republic forces, everything looks different than it was supposed to look.
First of all, liberal opposition leader Donald Tusk’s biting, toxic tricks, developed by advertising gurus and diligently hammered out, are not breaking through. They receive applause at rallies and likes on Twitter, but nothing more. They genuinely don’t reach people, they are not taken seriously.
Why? Tusk began his usual campaign of moral panic too early with great self-confidence. He has already said everything, accused everyone, even of “the serial killing of women.” Poles listened for a moment, but then decided: “This is nothing serious, it’s just typical Tusk hate.”
But there’s a second reason.
Law and Justice won the battle for the character of this campaign. It is already known that this is a campaign about serious issues important to Poles, about security and the economy, about the future of Poland and its citizens. Tusk never had a great chance to compete when it came to these topics. His only hope is emotions, screaming, and brawls around secondary issues. It is already visible that old tricks simply don’t work in this campaign.
Why don’t they work? It is due to Law and Justice choosing its own battlegrounds well: immigration, the border wall, national assets, and the retirement age. They did not let themselves be pushed off from the fields of battle that matter. Every attack by the opposition in this area elevates the importance of these issues, and these are topics where deep credibility lies on the side of the ruling camp. This public sentiment cannot be broken by a single tweet, video clip or even a convention.
The opposition has bad advisors. They made white shirts and empty hearts the symbol of their campaign, but such “uniforms” and marketing have never brought success to anyone in any of the countries of our region, although, for example, the Hungarian opposition tried it.
The latest survey by Social Changes, for portal wPolityce.pl, confirms that PiS sets the tone of the campaign. This is the opinion of 44 percent of respondents. Only 21 percent see an advantage for the opposition. This is not yet a guarantee of victory, certainly not a guarantee of a majority in the new Sejm, but trends are working in favor of Jarosław Kaczyński’s camp.
Tusk’s camp not only has no sensible idea for Poland, but they also have no idea for an effective campaign.
Law and Justice has a clear strategy for both Poland and the election campaign. If it stays the course, it will govern for a third term.