Poland’s economy continued to defy expectations in the second half of 2021 and is expected to enjoy a growth rate significantly higher than the EU average in the next two years, according to an economic forecast published by the European Commission.
In the EU executive’s Winter 2022 forecast, Poland confirmed its resilience in the face of coronavirus and disrupted supply chains, posting a 2.1-percent increase in the third quarter of last year, “mainly due to the gradual loosening of pandemic restrictions,” according to the Commission report.
It estimated that Poland’s GDP growth increased by 5.7 percent last year, whereas earlier forecasts had predicted a rise of just 4.9 percent. The Commission forecasts that this year Poland’s GDP will increase by 5.5 percent, and by 4.2 percent in 2023.
The Commission stated that inflation in Poland for 2022 will be 6.8 percent, but this is expected to decrease to 3.8 percent in 2023. These are much higher readings than the previous forecasts, which estimated 5.2 percent and 2.6 percent respectively.
The European Commission pointed out that HICP inflation (consumer-price inflation) clearly grew in the second half of 2021 due to the rising global prices of resources and bottlenecks in supply.
In 2021, inflation was 5.2 percent on average for the year and was the highest it has been for 20 years.
“Although the new package introduced by the government lowered taxes on energy and food products, an acceleration of inflation in the first quarter of 2022 is still expected due to regulated energy prices,” the commission explained.