Polish parties opinion survey: United Right surging, Civic Platform down – the end of the Tusk effect

Source: Twitter/Kancelaria Sejmu
By Grzegorz Adamczyk
3 Min Read

Portal wPolityce.pl has published the latest survey on voter preferences carried out by Social Changes.

If general elections in Poland took place this Sunday, the United Right (Law and Justice – PiS and to small coalition partners) would receive 36 percent of the vote – a 2 percent increase compared to the previous survey. Second would be the Civic Platform (PO) with 24 percent of the vote, a 1 percent decrease compared to what the party had previously.

Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 is maintaining a stable position with 19 percent of the vote.

The right-wing Confederation also has not dropped down in polls and continues to possess a 9 percent share of the vote.

The final party which would pass the election threshold is the Left, which is supported by 7 percent of voters. It has seen a 1 percent decrease compared to the previous survey.

The Polish People’s Party and Kukiz’15 would both see only 2 percent of support and would not enter parliament.

Which political group would you vote for if the elections to Polish parliament took place this Sunday? (undecided voters not included)

Blue – United Right; Orange – Civic Platform; Purple – Poland 2050; Dark blue – Confederation; Red – Left; Green – Polish People’s Party; Dark green – Kukiz’15; Gray – Other. (source: wpolityce.pl/Social Changes)

Social Changes also conducted a survey to see whether election results would change if Civic Platform was led by Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. The party would receive 27 percent of the vote, a 2 percent increase compared to if Donald Tusk, who returned to Polish politics a month ago, is in charge.

Interestingly, in that case PO would snatch away 1 percent of votes from the United Right. Only 6 percent of people would also support the Confederation. Kukiz’15 would receive 1 percent more in the case of Trzaskowski leading PO.

The survey also asked who Poles believed would be the better leader for PO – Trzaskowski or Tusk?

Answers to the question were fairly equally divided, with 25 percent choosing Donald Tusk and 26 percent choosing Trzaskowski, the rest remaining undecided. Detailed data shows, however, that Tusk is a favorite to lead PO among PO’s voter base, whereas Law and Justice and Poland 2050 supporters would prefer Trzaskowski in that role.

The forecasted turnout for the elections would be 68 percent.

The survey was conducted using the CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interview) service via an internet panel. It was carried out on 1063 adult Poles from July 23 – 26.

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