Former Prime Minister Leszek Miller said Donald Tusk could win next year’s parliamentary elections yet still fail to form a governing majority, allowing the conservative opposition led by Jarosław Kaczyński to take power. However, he does provide a strategy to help head off this outcome.
In an interview on Wirtualna Polska, Miller was asked to name the greatest success of Tusk’s government. “That it exists,” he replied. He said he had urged Tusk, then serving in Brussels, to return to Polish politics and was pleased when Tusk decided to do so. Since that decision, Tusk managed to secure power in Poland, but Miller warns that a second run may prove harder.
Miller argued that the 2027 elections could mirror those of 2023, when Kaczyński’s Law and Justice (PiS) party won the most votes but could not assemble a parliamentary majority.
“It’s not like Kaczyński lost the election. He won, but he did not have the ability to form a parliamentary majority,” Miller said. “And now it may be the other way around. Donald Tusk may win, but he will not have the ability to obtain a majority.”
Miller stressed that post-election arithmetic will matter more than campaign promises.
“Before elections, a lot of time is spent on appropriate advertising of the program and candidates. Everyone drives around, telling us what they will do for the happiness of society. But immediately after the elections it ceases to be important, because arithmetic appears, which is the queen of the Sejm,” Miller said, referring to the 231 votes needed for a majority in the lower house of Parliament. “It may turn out that Tusk won, but he does not have 231 votes, while Kaczyński does.”
A winning strategy?
Miller said Tusk must decide how to construct electoral lists. Tusk could include weaker coalition partners on a single list or risk some of them falling below the 5 percent threshold needed to enter parliament. Most of the polls show that under current conditions, Tusk will not have enough coalition partners to win an election. Many of his current partners falls below 5 percent, which means they have no chance of entering parliament.
Combining these parties into one electoral list may be a solution for Tusk.
“PSL will pressure Tusk to go together, because they themselves are wandering around 3-4 percent,” he said, referring to the Polish People’s Party. “Hołownia 2050 is a tragedy in general; they can’t survive without Tusk.”
If The Left holds a stable 7-8 percent, it can run independently and will not need Tusk, Miller added. But if its support drops, it too may seek a joint list. In that case, “the head of this list and the man who decides on the places is Donald Tusk.”
Miller led the Democratic Left Alliance and served as prime minister from 2001 to 2004. Tusk, leader of Civic Coalition, has been prime minister since late 2023.
