Energy analysts and Germany’s gas storage operators are sounding the alarm over historically low fill levels as the country enters the 2026/27 winter season, with some analysts stating the situation is critical.
As of Nov. 1, 2026, storage facilities stood at just 61 percent full, which is nine percentage points below the statutory target of 70 percent. This is the lowest level at the start of the heating period since comparable records began in 2011.
The Energy Storage Initiative (INES), the association representing 17 gas storage operators, stated in a press release on Nov. 10 that supply security could be at risk in the event of an extremely cold winter, such as the one seen in 2010.
“The refilling of gas storage facilities in 2026 was at a level lower than at any comparable time in its history,” according to the INES.
Under normal or warm temperature conditions, Germany’s gas supply is expected to be sufficient over the coming winter. However, in a cold scenario, gas storage would not be enough for January, February, and March 2027. Modeling indicates potential shortfalls of up to 6.6 terawatt-hours (TWh) in a single month, with daily shortages reaching as high as 1.7 TWh in January.
“Our scenarios demonstrate how important sufficiently filled gas storage facilities are for Germany’s security of supply,” said Sebastian Heinermann, managing director of INES. “Imports through the available pipelines and LNG terminals alone cannot meet peak demand on cold winter days. Low gas storage levels pose a significant risk to security of supply.”
Refilling in 2026 remained historically weak compared with previous years. INES attributes this primarily to high withdrawals during last winter and insufficient economic incentives for storage injections during the summer and early autumn.
The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and the Federal Network Agency are more optimistic. Officials maintain that overall supply remains secure through a combination of pipeline imports, LNG terminals, existing infrastructure, and demand management.
The wars in Iran and Ukraine have exacerbated the global energy crisis and driven up the price of natural gas for all of Europe, including Germany.
Wholesale natural gas prices in Europe have climbed above €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since late 2022, raising the prospect of sharply higher household bills next year. In late October, the EU issued serious warnings about an energy crisis and difficult economy for the winter ahead.
Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said on Oct. 28: “Once again, due to geopolitical turbulence, Europe faces another energy crisis. We know that this winter will be difficult for European citizens and for our economy in general.”
