The stereotype of the typical Confederation party voter as a young single male who supports libertarian ideas is no longer valid, said the head of the IBRiS polling agency, Marcin Duma, during an interview with Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita. The party is now gaining votes from older age groups and from women; moreover, it is showing it can attract votes in both urban and rural areas.
What seems to bring these people together is individualist rather than altruistic views.
The Confederation was male dominated when it was polling below 10 percent. Now that it is closing in on 15 percent, the gender balance has shifted from four to one in favor of men to now just six to four. At first sight, this is surprising given that the party supports restrictions on abortion and that the party itself is male dominated. However, according to Duma, not all women are influenced by feminist ideas.
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According to the IBRiS head, Confederation’s weakness remains the fact that it is underrepresented among older voters. Since the young often don’t actually bother to vote, this could see the party gain fewer votes than opinion polls show on election day. Nevertheless, the party’s rise in the 30-50 age group, where the propensity to vote is high, gives Confederation hope that it can match its poll ratings at the ballot box.
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The pollster said he feels that the party is also benefiting from being clearly seen as anti-establishment, in a way that the rock musician Paweł Kukiz and his grouping once were. The strategy of maintaining equidistance between liberals and the currently ruling conservatives is paying dividends among those voters who are tired of both.
Duma believes that the biggest headache for Confederation will come if it actually succeeds in holding the balance of power. Having promised change, it will be very difficult for the party to ally itself with the current ruling Law and Justice (PiS), but it is also not exactly well matched with Donald Tusk’s liberal Civic Platform (PO), whose electorate is highly hostile to Confederation.
