According to the latest polling, only 28 percent of Poles think Ukraine will win the war with Russia, while 33 percent think they will lose and 39 percent are undecided. The poll, conducted by the SW Research agency for the weekly news outlet Wprost, has shown that Poles are losing faith in Ukraine’s ability to win the war following Russia’s invasion.
Two years ago, Russia failed in its initial efforts to take Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa, but it made substantial territorial gains in the east and south of Ukraine, eventually taking Mariupol, thereby creating a corridor between the Donbas region and Crimea, which had been occupied back in 2014.
A few months later, Ukraine managed to reclaim Kherson and most of the Kharkiv region in a surprise counterattack that raised hopes of a Ukrainian victory. However, the failure of the counteroffensive in 2023 has seen that faith wane.
The latest poll is just one more indicator that this faith is also declining in Poland. The data shows that men are more optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects, with 31 percent of them believing Ukraine can win, whereas only 24.5 percent of women are of that opinion.
However, the findings of the SW Research poll are more optimistic than the findings of the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR). That survey showed that only 17 percent of Poles believe in a Ukrainian victory, while EU-wide, just 10 percent do, with 20 percent believing the Russians are more likely to win.
In the ECFR poll, 37 percent of people across Europe believed that there would be a negotiated solution. In their analysis of the polling data, the ECFR stated that the failure of the counteroffensive and the news about the lack of support from the U.S. were contributing factors to the pessimistic views on Ukraine’s chances in the war.
