High growth in retail sales, a strong rebound in the construction sector and robust productivity data suggest that Poland’s GDP growth will amount to 5.4 percent in 2021.
Statistics Poland (GUS) has indicated that retail sale in fixed prices grew by 12.1 percent year-on-year in November 2021 and decreased by 1 percent compared to October 2021.
When it comes to spot prices, retail sales have grown by 21.2 percent year-on-year. The Polish Economic Institute (PIE) pointed out in its latest report that the data was significantly higher than market forecasts, with the consensus standing at 8.7 percent growth.
PIE informed that the volume in trade of clothing, semi-durable goods (jewelry or toys) and in drugstore sales grew the fastest in 2021. On the other hand, low sales of cars worsened the results. The ongoing shortage of semiconductors and the suspension of production by car companies had solidified such a state of affairs for several months.
PIE’s economists believe that the high growth rate of retail sales will also continue in December. They referred to cyclical research conducted by Deloitte and the Institute for Social Research and Market (IBRiS) which pointed to a 11 percent increase in spending by Polish consumers.
Moreover, PIE indicated that data shows construction production accelerated from 4.2 to 12.7 percent – much higher than the previously forecasted 6 percent. This area also saw a dynamic growth of all components associated with it.
“This data is an optimistic signal for investments in the fourth quarter. November data suggests that GDP growth in the entire 2021 will be much stronger than the forecasts from a month ago. We expect that the Polish economy will finish this year 5.4 percent larger than it was last year,” PIE evaluated.
