Polling increasingly shows that Poland’s voters think the ruling conservatives will win upcoming national elections, which is often a better indicator of what will happen in an election than asking voters who they will vote for.
A poll conducted by United Surveys for daily Dziennik Gazeta Prawna and commercial radio RMF FM shows that 52 percent of all voters believe that the ruling conservatives, Law and Justice (PiS), will win the election and form a government. Only 27 percent believe that the main opposition liberal PO will win, and 31 percent believe that a coalition of opposition parties will form a government.
The research also shows that the electorate of the ruling party is convinced their party will come out on top. Meanwhile, opposition voters are more divided, with 47 percent thinking PO will win and 32 percent pointing to the ruling conservative PiS.
Undecided voters heavily favor the ruling conservatives, with 60 percent of them saying PiS will win the election and only 10 percent choosing the liberal PO.
Asked about who will form the government, 90 percent of conservative voters were sure it would be PiS, and 63 percent of opposition voters thought that PiS would form a government.
The survey, taken in early March, seems to confirm the growing confidence in the ranks of the ruling party, which is seen as having sufficiently coped with economic problems and security issues. The opposition, on the other hand, looks divided and uncertain over what its key messages should be.
