There are interesting reports from behind the scenes of the Civic Platform, with the party’s option of allying with the PSL (Polish People’s Party), the Left, and Hołownia’s faction (Poland 2050) seen as less likely after the October elections.
Polls and the emerging chaos from the presented electoral lists confirm this potential alliance is growing less and less likely. It is not seen as an electoral list of politicians for a convincing victory or even moderately efficient governance.
Therefore, the game is now about implementing the secret “Plan B” of the opposition: an attempt to build a temporary majority of “all against PiS (Law and Justice party),” with “all” also including the right-wing Confederation party.
A Polish government supported by them would try to pacify the only mass media independent of the Third Republic of Poland, namely public television, TVP, and make quick changes in economic institutions. The next step would be quick elections.
From my information, unofficially, the Confederation is not saying “no”.
This is also because in this plan the prime minister would be Tomasz Siemoniak, the head of the defense ministry during Tusk’s rule, but a politician from PO’s second rank today. Such a nomination would emphasize the technical nature of the cabinet.
The calculations of the Confederation are simple: Although a PiS loss means handing over power to Tusk today, it opens up broader perspectives for Mentzen’s party in a few years. Knowing life, of course, nothing will come of it, but they could still cause damage.
So, can a vote for the Confederation be a vote for a Tusk government?
The risk of such a scenario is increasing. The choice facing Poles is becoming increasingly clear: Either a government led by Jarosław Kaczyński or by Donald Tusk. The shades of gray are disappearing.
