Tag: consumer confidence

  • Poland sees economic growth in last quarter of 2023

    Poland sees economic growth in last quarter of 2023

    The Polish economy is poised for a rebound after a challenging 2023, claim economists at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) after the latest data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). They predict that in the upcoming quarters, Poland will experience growth rates exceeding 2 percent, fueled largely by increased household consumer spending.

    In a preliminary estimate released by the GUS on Thursday, Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter saw a year-over-year increase of 1.0 percent, a slight improvement from the 0.5 percent growth observed in the third quarter of 2023. This figure aligns with the earlier “flash estimate” provided by the GUS.

    The PIE analysts highlighted that this outcome was influenced by weak household consumption and robust corporate investment expenditures, which grew by 8.7 percent year-over-year. Additionally, net exports contributed positively, whereas a decline in inventories had a negative impact. The analysts noted that “significant drops in inventory levels are likely related to data compilation issues and often undergo revisions in subsequent publications.”

    For the first quarter of 2024, the growth rate is expected to be around 2.2 percent, aided by a rebound in consumer spending and a low base from the previous year.

    The analysts also observed a noticeable slowdown in investments due to a standstill in local government work on projects funded by EU cohesion funds, a phenomenon that typically occurs at the beginning of a new seven-year budget.

    Moreover, they anticipate a slower pace of investment among firms due to reduced operational profits.

    The PIE forecasts that the Polish economy will close 2024 with a growth rate of approximately 2.4 percent, with the second quarter expected to show the strongest performance, nearing 3 percent year-over-year growth. However, the latter half of the year might see weaker results due to modest increases in investment spending. Financial support tied to incoming EU funds is likely to become evident only in the final quarter in terms of GDP data.

  • Consumer confidence in Czechia hits historic low

    Consumer confidence in Czechia hits historic low

    Consumer confidence in the Czech economy has fallen to its lowest level on record, according to the latest survey conducted by the Czech Statistical Office.

    A record number of respondents fear a worsening of their financial situation, and “the number of consumers who assess their situation as worse than in the last 12 months is also close to a historic high,” the statisticians reported.

    The confidence and hope with which we think about the future affects that future to a great extent. That mood has a significant influence on how we make decisions. If we have faith in the future, we have dreams and courage. Alternatively, on the contrary, we can fall into pessimism about the months and years to come. Expectations determine how we live, and this is why the public’s current mood is monitored very carefully by various surveys.

    A storm of more bad news follows as industrialists and businesses have a similar negative outlook on the future.

    “Household pessimism has been growing for the fifth month in a row. Consumer confidence in the economy reached the lowest value in the survey’s history in July. Consumers believe that their current financial situation, as well as the overall economic situation in the Czech Republic, is deteriorating and that this negative trend will continue in the coming months.”

    Czech Statistical Office

    For those who watch what is happening around them, it is difficult to avoid similar moods. People see sharp price increases around them, but nowhere do they get an answer as to when and how it will end.

    The first news that one sees in the morning after going online is that thousands are speculating about whether or not Russia will turn off the gas and many musings about the severe winter. Then comes the news that the price of electricity will continue to rise.

    In such a rich and advanced society as the European Union, including the Czech Republic, there is suddenly a serious debate about whether or not people will be able to cover their basic needs, like a sufficiently heated house or apartment. We are discussing reducing energy consumption and considering how to cook, wash, and live more economically. Regression.

    All this is an example of obvious decay. European society has reached a dead end. The idea that people will give up basic needs like a warm home and feel happy doing so is illusory. Humans are naturally set on improving their lives. Society thrives, and people feel good about when they believe their children will have a better life than they did.

    The government and the Czech National Bank must act

    Unfortunately, the Czech Republic has, in recent months, resembled a car going through difficult times without a driver. Petr Fiala’s government, unlike others in Europe, has been unable to tame electricity prices, which have gotten completely out of control due to distorted regulation. And there is no solution in sight. Instead, the government is patching holes with social benefits such as the austerity tariff, which only deepens the national debt.

    The Central Bank and its new governor, Aleš Michl, seem even more confused. So far, the governor has not even bothered to publicly say what he plans to do with one of the highest inflation rates in the European Union. We only know that the primary tool the bank has to tame inflation is interest rates, and Aleš Michl will not raise them. And he probably has the majority of the bank board on his side.

    In her first public appearance, the new vice-governor, Eva Zamrazilová, warned people not to ask for higher salaries, because otherwise, the bank will have to raise interest rates. In other words, she told them to accept that they are becoming poorer instead of showing a plan of what she will do to fight inflation.

    The helpless watching and defeatism of the political and financial elite is extremely dangerous. Prime Minister Petr Fiala should tell people soon how his government will deal with the rapidly rising electricity prices. He can’t do anything about the gas and oil we import. However, the intervention in electricity is in his hands.

    Central bankers should then clearly say how and when they will tame the worst inflation in the history of the Czech Republic. The excuse that it is necessary to wait for the rise in prices to stop by itself will only deepen mistrust and pessimism.

    It’s high time for Petr Fiala and Aleš Michl to sit behind the wheel, start making decisions, and drive, and to show pessimistic Czechs the light at the end of the crisis tunnel.