The latest polling ahead of Poland’s general election on Oct. 15 has offered a potential pathway for the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party to retain power, although it is not the most likely outcome.
A survey conducted by the Social Changes polling agency for the wPolityce.pl news site showed PiS enjoying the support of 39 percent of the electorate, nine percentage points more than its biggest electoral threat, the liberal Civic Coalition (KO) led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Both major parties recorded the same result as a week ago, but the right-wing Confederation party saw its support increase from 9 percent to 10 percent, while the Left party’s support fell by one percentage point to 9 percent.
Meanwhile, support for the centrist Third Way coalition, which comprises the Polish People’s Party (PSL) and TV celebrity Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 party, increased to 9 percent.
No other party came close to surpassing the 5 percent threshold required to enter the Polish parliament.
Light blue is United Right; orange is Civic Platform; dark blue is Confederation; red is the Left; yellow is Third Way; dark green is Non-Partisan movement; and grey is Other. Without undecided voters. (Source: Social Changes/wPolityce.pl)
According to a simulation of how these results would translate into seats in the 460-member Lower House — the chamber of parliament that elects the government and has the final say on all legislation — the ruling party is still short of the 231 seats required for a parliamentary majority.
PiS would have 213 seats and the KO 144. The three opposition parties that have pledged to form a government together (KO, the Left, and Third Way) would be well short of a majority too since Third Way would be projected to have 34 seats and the Left 29, giving the opposition 207 seats in total.
The balance of power would be held by the Confederation with 39 seats, a party that has so far ruled out forming a government either with PiS or the KO and their allies, and risks throwing the Polish parliament into crisis.
However, one pathway that could see the situation change radically in favor of the ruling party would be if Third Way, which as a coalition of parties, needs to reach a threshold of 8 percent to enter parliament, failed to reach that figure.
In such circumstances, a re-calibration of the parliamentary composition would see PiS likely reach the 231 seats needed for an absolute majority in parliament.
The electoral campaign has become increasingly polarized, with both major parties focusing on identity politics and trading personal insults ahead of polling day.
Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of PiS, has described his KO counterpart Donald Tusk as the personification of evil and an “enemy of Poland,” while Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has warned that the liberal opposition is preparing to allow “young, rootless immigrants” to “storm the borders.”
Similarly, Tusk has accused Poland’s political leadership of “stabbing Ukraine in the back” by withdrawing military support to its war-torn neighbor, claiming it has done so “just because it will be profitable for their (election) campaign.”
