Poll: Bad news for Poland’s opposition

Only 25 percent of Poles believe that the opposition is prepared to take over power from Poland’s conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party

editor: Grzegorz Adamczyk
author: Rzeczpospolita
Source: Twitter/Kancelaria Sejmu

Poles are not confident that the opposition would be able to manage the country well if it won parliamentary elections and replaced the current conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government, according to a poll carried out by the Institute for Social Research and Market (IBRiS) for the Polish media outlet Rzeczpospolita.

The data showed that 63.6 percent of Poles believe that the opposition is not ready to take over power from PiS. Within this group, 33.9 percent stated that it “definitely” was not and 29.7 percent claimed that it “probably was not” ready.

Only 4.7 percent of respondents said that the opposition “definitely was” prepared, another 20.1 percent of Poles thought that the opposition “probably was” prepared, and 11.6 percent stated that they did not know.

In the case of voters, 77 percent of PiS’s supporters evaluated that the opposition would not handle governance. Only 3 percent held the opposite opinion.

What is surprising are the answers given by the supporters of the opposition. Forty-three percent among them declared that the opposition was ready to take over power, and 51 percent stated that it was not.

When it comes to undecided voters or people who do not vote, 21 percent of them believed that the opposition was ready to rule.

On the other hand, in another IBRiS survey, Poles also revealed which political party they would vote for in elections.

PiS would receive 30.8 percent of support, while the Civic Platform (PO) would obtain 24.1 percent of the vote. This means, that Donald Tusk’s party has recorded a 3-percentage point increase in support since the previous IBRiS survey a month ago. In third would be Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050, with 10 percent of the vote (a 3-percentage point drop).

Three other parties would also find themselves above the election threshold – the Left party (7.8 percent and a 0.2 percentage point decrease), the Confederation (6.3 percent and a 0.3 percentage point growth) and the Polish People’s Party (PSL) with 5.9 percent of support.

But this survey is also held some good news for the opposition, showing that if it united, it potentially could form a government.

The declared turnout rate would be 49.2 percent and is lower than the one from November 2021, which amounted to 55 percent.

The IBRiS survey was conducted using the CATI method on 1,100 respondents between Dec. 17 and Dec. 18.

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