The arrival of July 1 brings with it sharp increases in electricity and gas prices, and the government seems to believe it can weather this storm. However, if things go south, it is quite clear who the prime minister will likely blame for the public outrage.
Since the beginning of June, a citizen-initiated bill titled “Stop Energy Price Increases” has been stalled in the parliament. Proposed by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS), this initiative gathered 140,000 signatures in support, yet it was swiftly “frozen” in the parliamentary “freeze box,” even though speaker Szymon Hołownia had said during the campaign that he would no longer allow any bills to be frozen in parliament. However, it still remains untouched, and the number of projects being “frozen” continues to rise, now humorously referred to by Hołownia’s coalition partners from the Left as the “smiling fridge,” a reference to the coalition’s reputation of delivering brutality, such as the takeover of public media with police forces, with the veneer of a smiling face.
Meanwhile, the anticipated date of July 1 is rapidly approaching, promising an end to the freeze on energy prices for households and businesses alike, with impending increases ranging from 20 to 40 percent. The government under Donald Tusk has been preparing its narrative for a while now. It is a mix of three elements.
First, there will be talk of how these hikes and the realignment of prices are both necessary and inevitable. Second, they will spin a yarn that it’s all PiS’ fault, noting how PiS only planned to maintain anti-inflation shields for half the year in their 2023 budget. Few will mention that after moving to the opposition, PiS proposed extending this protection until the end of the year, a proposal that was rejected by Tusk’s smiling coalition.
If they wanted, Tusk’s government could have extended these protections (one would bet that if PiS were in charge, they would have done just that). Lastly, the plan assumes that people will eventually accept these price increases, reorganize their budgets, perhaps start saving energy, and simply get used to it.
However, most crucially — amid the general chaos of informational and propaganda noise and with the overwhelming advantage of a pro-Tusk narrative in traditional media (let’s not forget the takeover of public media was supposedly for this reason) — few will lay the blame for expensive energy at the coalition’s political doorstep.
Furthermore, if things really go south and public discontent becomes unmanageable, a few months down the line, Prime Minister Tusk will “discover the issue” (notably, he hasn’t spoken much about the price hikes), call his ministers to order, promise that things will get better, and as usual, the people will be the last ones to learn about any of this.
This is how it will be communicated to us, and this is how we are expected to respond. Politically, I am puzzled by those who willingly accept such unflattering roles scripted for them. I’m bewildered at the Third Way coalition members who will be saddled with the responsibility for expensive electricity — after all, this issue falls under Minister Hennig-Kloska’s portfolio, doesn’t it? And she hails from Hołownia.
I’m also surprised at the Left, which once again misses a golden opportunity to show whose side they are on. Are they with the establishment that sees expensive energy as a precursor to a new wonderful world of degrowth — since “obviously” we consume too much and lead an excessively predatory raw material economy? Or are they on the side of ordinary people, upon whom another grand social experiment is being conducted without their consent?
In the political arena, it will be the Left and the Third Way taking the heat for energy issues. And Premier Tusk? As usual, he will be the last to be blamed.
