The ongoing conflict in Ukraine could have far-reaching consequences for the balance of power in Europe and the world, a leading U.S. political scientist has claimed.
In an interview for Polish Radio, Professor Andrew Michta warned about the consequences of the conflict not being communicated loudly enough to the citizens of NATO states and the West; he also said that the West’s slowness in delivering weapons to Ukraine creates a very dangerous situation.
Michta, who is the Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Garmisch, Germany, believes that the next six months will be crucial for the fate of the war in Ukraine and that the window of opportunity for Ukraine to win may never reopen.
If Russia wins, Michta said, the flank states directly threatened by Russian aggression, including Poland, could face another major war within several years.
Michta stressed that, according to the head of the CIA, the next six months will be crucial for the fate of the war in Ukraine. Therefore, this window of opportunity must be used, with U.S. support to Europe, to stop Putin.
After that time, Michta warned, the U.S. will increasingly focus its efforts on the Indo-Pacific.
He noted that Europe must arm itself, adding that ammunition production is necessary. “Ukrainians can use up to one-third of the monthly production of ammunition in the U.S. in a day, which is why it increased 155 mm ammunition production by 500 percent,” the academic told Polish radio.
Michta says Ukraine should ultimately join NATO, insisting the country “currently has the strongest army in Europe, not only in terms of size and equipment but also in practice.” He stressed that for Ukraine to develop it must have guaranteed security, and in the current situation, only NATO protection provides such a guarantee.
According to the expert, the outcome of the war will change the world order. “A Ukrainian victory and building a democratic state there could lead to a very rapid collapse of Lukashenko’s dictatorship in Belarus,” he said.
If Russia was to win, the Kremlin would attempt to incorporate Belarus and Ukraine into the structure of the Russian Federation, concluded Michta.